Tommy Paul v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONT. Paul is 7-3 over the last ten and 33-17 on hard this season. D. Merida Aguilar is 6-4 over the last ten and 25-12 on hard this season.
The pick is T. Paul to win. We make it a 79% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.27 or bigger. At 1.21 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| T. Paul | D. Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Ranking | 39 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WLWWL | Last 5 | WLLWL |
| +1.4 | V the odds | +0.9 |
| 48-22 | Season | 45-22 |
| 33-17 | Hard 2026 | 25-12 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
T. Paul — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | D. Merida Aguilar | 1.21 | 80% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-1 PaulAguilarPoints won68%32%Serve points won85%43%Return points won57%15%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved1 of 16 of 11Aces42Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-11-02 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | H. Rune | 1.47 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 6-4 PaulRunePoints won56%44%Serve points won70%60%Return points won40%30%Games held10 of 118 of 11Break points saved3 of 41 of 4Aces127Double faults14 | |||||||
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | C. Alcaraz | 3.98 | 76% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-7 PaulAlcarazPoints won48%52%Serve points won69%68%Return points won32%31%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved3 of 45 of 5Aces35Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | L. Darderi | 1.27 | 77% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-1 PaulDarderiPoints won72%28%Serve points won88%40%Return points won60%12%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved0 of 04 of 9Aces103Double faults13 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. Rublev | 1.80 | 54% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 6-2 PaulRublevPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%53%Return points won47%32%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 27 of 11Aces43Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2.65 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 5-7 PaulFritzPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%67%Return points won33%34%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved1 of 39 of 9Aces115Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | C. Moutet | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-3 PaulMoutetPoints won50%50%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held10 of 149 of 14Break points saved10 of 145 of 10Aces43Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | B. Bonzi | 1.41 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-3 PaulBonziPoints won54%46%Serve points won78%68%Return points won32%22%Games held16 of 1613 of 15Break points saved2 of 23 of 5Aces1810Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2.91 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-1 3-6 PaulMedvedevPoints won48%52%Serve points won57%60%Return points won40%43%Games held9 of 139 of 12Break points saved8 of 1211 of 14Aces716Double faults18 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Bergs | 1.48 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 PaulBergsPoints won51%49%Serve points won67%69%Return points won31%33%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved8 of 92 of 4Aces34Double faults23 | |||||||
D. Merida Aguilar — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | T. Paul | 4.91 | 80% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 1-6 AguilarPaulPoints won32%68%Serve points won43%85%Return points won15%57%Games held2 of 77 of 7Break points saved6 of 111 of 1Aces24Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-11-02 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | S. Baez | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-2 AguilarBaezPoints won54%46%Serve points won67%60%Return points won40%33%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved4 of 46 of 9Aces62Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | D. Medvedev | 4.42 | 78% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 1-6 AguilarMedvedevPoints won42%58%Serve points won52%65%Return points won35%48%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved1 of 54 of 6Aces05Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1.96 | 50% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-1 3-6 4-6 AguilarZandschulpPoints won49%51%Serve points won59%58%Return points won42%41%Games held9 of 139 of 13Break points saved0 of 43 of 7Aces60Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | A. Tabilo | 2.12 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-3 AguilarTabiloPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%60%Return points won40%32%Games held14 of 1512 of 15Break points saved5 of 65 of 8Aces93Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | A. Michelsen | 2.68 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 4-6 3-6 AguilarMichelsenPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held12 of 1614 of 15Break points saved3 of 74 of 5Aces86Double faults71 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | A. Rublev | 2.36 | 59% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-2 6-4 6-4 AguilarRublevPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%61%Return points won39%33%Games held19 of 2015 of 20Break points saved5 of 66 of 11Aces913Double faults98 | |||||||
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | M. Fucsovics | 1.23 | 79% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 6-2 AguilarFucsovicsPoints won57%43%Serve points won72%53%Return points won47%28%Games held13 of 138 of 13Break points saved0 of 08 of 13Aces30Double faults211 | |||||||
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Fritz | 4.65 | 79% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 AguilarFritzPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved5 of 72 of 2Aces28Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | Z. Bergs | 1.86 | 52% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-2 AguilarBergsPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%60%Return points won40%32%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved3 of 30 of 3Aces22Double faults96 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Tommy Paul or Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Tommy Paul is favourite at 1.21, which is a 80% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Tommy Paul is 1.21 and Daniel Merida Aguilar is 4.91, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
Who will win Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Our model makes it Tommy Paul to win at 1.21 (Lean confidence).