ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-04 10:00

Casper Ruud v Rafael Jodar

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

R. Jodar to win1.50

Price too short today - wait for 1.53 or bigger · our chance 65% · market 36/64, us 35/65

R. Jodar is 7-3 over the last ten and 40-15 on hard this season. C. Ruud is 7-3 over the last ten and 19-14 on hard this season. The head to head is C. Ruud 0-1.

The pick is R. Jodar to win. We make it a 65% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.53 or bigger. At 1.50 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

C. Ruud		R. Jodar
24	Ranking	13
7-3	Last 10	7-3
WLWLW	Last 5	WLWLW
+1.0	V the odds	+0.8
35-21	Season	58-19
19-14	Hard 2026	40-15
2	Last 7 days	2
2d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

C. Ruud2.6336%

R. JodarFAV1.5064%

Market says64% Jodar

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

C. RuudWLWLW

R. JodarWLWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

C. Ruud0

R. Jodar1

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-10-16	Shanghai	R. JodarvC. Ruud	4-6 6-4 6-3

This season & this event

C. Ruud

R. Jodar

35-21

19-14

Lost R32 to D. Altmaier

Lost R32 to J. Thompson

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

58-19

40-15

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Casper Ruud

Norway

Rafael Jodar

Spain

Norway

31–18

12–11

17–6

0–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Spain

56–18

34–13

19–4

2–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

C. Ruud — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Paris	Hard (Indoor)	J. M. Cerundolo		1.36	71%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 RuudCerundoloPoints won62%38%Serve points won82%56%Return points won44%18%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved0 of 02 of 5Aces65Double faults05
2026-10-28	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	N. Borges		1.53	64%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 3-6 4-6 RuudBorgesPoints won50%50%Serve points won66%65%Return points won35%34%Games held11 of 1311 of 13Break points saved2 of 45 of 7Aces124Double faults42
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	D. Stricker		1.37	71%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-5 6-3 RuudStrickerPoints won51%49%Serve points won76%78%Return points won22%24%Games held15 of 1613 of 15Break points saved1 of 21 of 3Aces1213Double faults01
2026-10-16	Shanghai	Hard	R. Jodar		2.17	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 4-6 3-6 RuudJodarPoints won46%54%Serve points won56%67%Return points won33%44%Games held10 of 1511 of 14Break points saved10 of 154 of 7Aces106Double faults50
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	F. Auger-Aliassime	RET	2.27	57%	WON
Games in each set5-2 RuudAuger-AliassimePoints won59%41%Serve points won80%63%Return points won37%20%Games held4 of 42 of 3Break points saved0 of 00 of 1Aces01Double faults01
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	L. Tien		2.37	59%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 RuudTienPoints won53%47%Serve points won72%64%Return points won36%28%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved2 of 28 of 9Aces137Double faults35
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	Y. Bu		2.01	52%	WON
Games in each set6-1 7-6 RuudBuPoints won57%43%Serve points won74%58%Return points won42%26%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved3 of 35 of 7Aces1410Double faults11
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	L. Darderi		1.46	67%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 RuudDarderiPoints won43%57%Serve points won55%71%Return points won29%45%Games held7 of 109 of 11Break points saved5 of 86 of 8Aces1113Double faults43
2026-09-25	ATP Laver Cup	Hard (Indoor)	F. Cerundolo		1.85	52%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-4 10-8 RuudCerundoloPoints won50%50%Serve points won68%69%Return points won31%32%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved1 of 13 of 4Aces65Double faults24
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	F. Nidunjianzan		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-0 RuudNidunjianzanPoints won69%31%Serve points won82%42%Return points won58%18%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved0 of 01 of 6Aces22Double faults03

R. Jodar — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Paris	Hard (Indoor)	A. Tabilo	1.25	78%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-3 JodarTabiloPoints won59%41%Serve points won61%42%Return points won58%39%Games held7 of 93 of 8Break points saved2 of 47 of 12Aces103Double faults02
2026-10-29	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	V. Vacherot	1.36	72%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-2 6-7 JodarVacherotPoints won52%48%Serve points won70%65%Return points won35%30%Games held15 of 1613 of 16Break points saved2 of 38 of 11Aces1013Double faults36
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	A. Tabilo	1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 JodarTabiloPoints won57%43%Serve points won70%56%Return points won44%30%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved6 of 66 of 9Aces46Double faults11
2026-10-18	Shanghai	Hard	A. Davidovich Fokina	1.74	56%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 6-7 4-6 JodarFokinaPoints won51%49%Serve points won63%61%Return points won39%37%Games held12 of 1510 of 14Break points saved4 of 78 of 12Aces126Double faults21
2026-10-17	Shanghai	Hard	D. Medvedev	2.65	63%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 JodarMedvedevPoints won54%46%Serve points won60%54%Return points won46%40%Games held8 of 105 of 9Break points saved4 of 63 of 7Aces63Double faults24
2026-10-16	Shanghai	Hard	C. Ruud	1.78	55%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-3 JodarRuudPoints won54%46%Serve points won67%56%Return points won44%33%Games held11 of 1410 of 15Break points saved4 of 710 of 15Aces610Double faults05
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	B. Van De Zandschulp	1.54	63%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-2 JodarZandschulpPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%59%Return points won41%32%Games held14 of 1511 of 15Break points saved1 of 25 of 9Aces46Double faults26
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	J. Lehecka	2.46	60%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-4 JodarLeheckaPoints won51%49%Serve points won67%68%Return points won32%33%Games held15 of 1615 of 16Break points saved5 of 63 of 4Aces310Double faults02
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	T. A. Tirante	1.42	68%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-2 6-3 JodarTirantePoints won52%48%Serve points won66%69%Return points won31%34%Games held13 of 1410 of 13Break points saved9 of 103 of 6Aces45Double faults32
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	D. Vallejo	1.23	79%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 3-6 JodarVallejoPoints won35%65%Serve points won38%68%Return points won32%62%Games held2 of 86 of 8Break points saved6 of 120 of 2Aces01Double faults20

Common questions

Who is favourite, Casper Ruud or Rafael Jodar?

Rafael Jodar is favourite at 1.50, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar?

Casper Ruud is 2.63 and Rafael Jodar is 1.50, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

What is the head-to-head between Casper Ruud and Rafael Jodar?

They have met 1 time and Rafael Jodar leads 1-0.

Who will win Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar?

Our model makes it Rafael Jodar to win at 1.50 (Lean confidence).

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