Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Alex De Minaur
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTA. De Minaur is 7-3 over the last ten and 26-14 on hard this season. T. M. Etcheverry is 4-6 over the last ten and 14-16 on hard this season. A. De Minaur retired from a match in the last month. A. De Minaur has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is T. M. Etcheverry 1-2.
The pick is A. De Minaur to win. We make it a 84% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.19 or bigger. At 1.18 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| T. M. Etcheverry | A. De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Ranking | 8 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WLLLL | Last 5 | LWWWW |
| -0.7 | V the odds | +2.1 |
| 28-27 | Season | 46-21 |
| 14-16 | Hard 2026 | 26-14 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 2d | Days rest | 3d |
| 1 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | retired |
| Head to head 1-2 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-15 | Barcelona | T. M. EtcheverryvA. De Minaur | 4-6 4-6 |
| 2024-12-28 | United Cup | A. De MinaurvT. M. Etcheverry | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2023-06-01 | ATP French Open | T. M. EtcheverryvA. De Minaur | 6-3 7-6 6-3 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
T. M. Etcheverry — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | A. De Minaur | 5.45 | 82% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-3 EtcheverryMinaurPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%66%Return points won34%33%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved12 of 131 of 3Aces44Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-11-02 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | A. Rublev | 2.99 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-7 7-6 EtcheverryRublevPoints won51%49%Serve points won69%71%Return points won29%31%Games held17 of 1716 of 17Break points saved6 of 62 of 3Aces2012Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | M. Berrettini | 2.52 | 61% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 EtcheverryBerrettiniPoints won45%55%Serve points won70%73%Return points won27%30%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved1 of 36 of 6Aces612Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | M. Bellucci | 2.09 | 53% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 6-2 4-6 EtcheverryBellucciPoints won53%47%Serve points won74%67%Return points won33%26%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved5 of 67 of 9Aces1015Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Svrcina | 1.66 | 59% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 5-7 EtcheverrySvrcinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won63%62%Return points won38%37%Games held11 of 1512 of 15Break points saved5 of 910 of 13Aces113Double faults14 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 3.53 | 72% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 4-6 EtcheverryTsitsipasPoints won45%55%Serve points won68%81%Return points won19%32%Games held12 of 1414 of 15Break points saved4 of 60 of 1Aces59Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-09-26 | Hangzhou | Hard | K. Jacquet | 1.61 | 60% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 3-6 EtcheverryJacquetPoints won44%56%Serve points won54%65%Return points won35%46%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved5 of 95 of 6Aces37Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | A. Michelsen | 3.38 | 71% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 4-6 4-6 EtcheverryMichelsenPoints won48%52%Serve points won66%71%Return points won29%34%Games held13 of 1615 of 16Break points saved1 of 44 of 5Aces612Double faults07 | |||||||
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | M. Navone | 1.77 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 6-3 EtcheverryNavonePoints won55%45%Serve points won72%62%Return points won38%28%Games held14 of 1510 of 14Break points saved0 of 14 of 8Aces84Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | J. Fearnley | 1.75 | 56% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3 EtcheverryFearnleyPoints won53%47%Serve points won61%55%Return points won45%39%Games held14 of 1811 of 18Break points saved8 of 1211 of 18Aces910Double faults511 | |||||||
A. De Minaur — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | T. M. Etcheverry | 1.18 | 82% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 3-6 MinaurEtcheverryPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%67%Return points won33%34%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved1 of 312 of 13Aces44Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-11-01 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | C. Alcaraz | 4.93 | 80% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 4-6 MinaurAlcarazPoints won43%57%Serve points won53%71%Return points won29%47%Games held5 of 98 of 8Break points saved4 of 81 of 1Aces15Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-31 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. Zverev | 3.22 | 70% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 1-6 7-6 MinaurZverevPoints won50%50%Serve points won69%63%Return points won37%31%Games held12 of 1414 of 15Break points saved1 of 313 of 14Aces56Double faults34 | |||||||
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | M. Berrettini | 1.44 | 68% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-2 MinaurBerrettiniPoints won55%45%Serve points won70%61%Return points won39%30%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved6 of 61 of 3Aces54Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-28 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | L. Tien | 1.88 | 52% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-2 MinaurTienPoints won60%40%Serve points won71%50%Return points won50%29%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved2 of 33 of 7Aces21Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-10-26 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | T. Machac | 1.44 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set1-6 6-4 6-3 MinaurMachacPoints won49%51%Serve points won56%57%Return points won43%44%Games held8 of 138 of 13Break points saved3 of 86 of 11Aces23Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Zverev | 2.70 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 4-6 MinaurZverevPoints won44%56%Serve points won67%76%Return points won24%33%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved0 of 25 of 5Aces610Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | K. Khachanov | 1.80 | 54% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MinaurKhachanovPoints won55%45%Serve points won75%65%Return points won35%25%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved1 of 11 of 3Aces43Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 1.42 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 MinaurSakamotoPoints won55%45%Serve points won80%67%Return points won33%20%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved2 of 20 of 1Aces1113Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-06 | Beijing | Hard | N. Djokovic | RET | 2.53 | 61% | LOST |
Games in each set6-7 1-0 MinaurDjokovicPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%82%Return points won18%32%Games held7 of 76 of 6Break points saved2 of 21 of 1Aces40Double faults20 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Tomas Martin Etcheverry or Alex De Minaur?
Alex De Minaur is favourite at 1.18, which is a 82% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Alex De Minaur?
Tomas Martin Etcheverry is 5.45 and Alex De Minaur is 1.18, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
What is the head-to-head between Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Alex De Minaur?
They have met 3 times and Alex De Minaur leads 2-1.
Who will win Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model makes it Alex De Minaur to win at 1.18 (Lean confidence).