ChallengerHardSeoul · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 03:00

Sho Shimabukuro v Jan Kumstat

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

J. Kumstat to win2.06

Worth backing at 1.85 or bigger · our chance 54% · market 53/47, us 46/54

J. Kumstat is 7-3 over the last ten and 11-9 on hard this season. S. Shimabukuro is 3-7 over the last ten and 22-24 on hard this season.

The pick is J. Kumstat to win. We make it a 54% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.85 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

S. Shimabukuro		J. Kumstat
109	Ranking	191
3-7	Last 10	7-3
LWLLL	Last 5	LLWLW
-0.6	V the odds	+1.3
31-29	Season	38-16
22-24	Hard 2026	11-9
2	Last 7 days	0
6d	Days rest	9d
0	Wins here	0
Defending title	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

S. ShimabukuroFAV1.8153%

J. Kumstat2.0647%

Market says53% Shimabukuro

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

S. ShimabukuroLWLLL

J. KumstatLLWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

S. Shimabukuro

Defending title

J. Kumstat

31-29

22-24

Champion

Lost R16 to J. Rodionov

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

38-16

11-9

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

Jan Kumstat

Czech Republic

109

Japan

30–28

21–22

0–2

7–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

191

Czech Republic

37–14

8–6

29–8

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

S. Shimabukuro — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	D. Medvedev	10.81	91%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 1-6 ShimabukuroMedvedevPoints won34%66%Serve points won46%79%Return points won21%54%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved5 of 103 of 3Aces17Double faults41
2026-10-20	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	R. Safiullin	6.14	84%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-4 ShimabukuroSafiullinPoints won50%50%Serve points won67%68%Return points won32%33%Games held15 of 1613 of 16Break points saved3 of 43 of 6Aces918Double faults15
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	M. Kecmanovic	3.02	68%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 ShimabukuroKecmanovicPoints won44%56%Serve points won56%71%Return points won29%44%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved6 of 91 of 1Aces64Double faults00
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	D. Shapovalov	3.42	72%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 1-6 ShimabukuroShapovalovPoints won39%61%Serve points won50%72%Return points won28%50%Games held5 of 99 of 10Break points saved3 of 75 of 6Aces111Double faults62
2026-09-23	Hangzhou	Hard	H. Gaston	2.24	57%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 ShimabukuroGastonPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%68%Return points won32%38%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved3 of 64 of 5Aces43Double faults31
2026-09-20	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	A. Shepp	1.33	73%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 ShimabukuroSheppPoints won55%45%Serve points won68%57%Return points won43%32%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved0 of 14 of 8Aces35Double faults23
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	J. Watt	1.24	76%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 ShimabukuroWattPoints won52%48%Serve points won75%71%Return points won29%25%Games held13 of 1412 of 14Break points saved4 of 55 of 7Aces621Double faults32
2026-08-30	US Open	Hard	A. Rinderknech	3.90	75%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 2-6 6-7 2-6 ShimabukuroRinderknechPoints won44%56%Serve points won61%76%Return points won24%39%Games held15 of 2019 of 20Break points saved7 of 121 of 2Aces1115Double faults93
2026-08-23	Winston-Salem	Hard	M. Kecmanovic	2.98	67%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 ShimabukuroKecmanovicPoints won44%56%Serve points won51%65%Return points won35%49%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved3 of 70 of 2Aces33Double faults46
2026-08-14	Cincinnati	Hard	H. Hurkacz	3.74	75%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 ShimabukuroHurkaczPoints won41%59%Serve points won56%79%Return points won21%44%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved2 of 52 of 2Aces213Double faults31

J. Kumstat — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-18	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	M. Mmoh	1.93	50%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 7-6 3-6 KumstatMmohPoints won42%58%Serve points won61%76%Return points won24%39%Games held10 of 1315 of 15Break points saved3 of 62 of 2Aces1113Double faults25
2026-10-15	Olbia	Hard	J. Fearnley	2.95	67%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 KumstatFearnleyPoints won43%57%Serve points won53%74%Return points won26%47%Games held6 of 108 of 9Break points saved5 of 92 of 3Aces24Double faults03
2026-10-12	Olbia	Hard	E. Butvilas	2.40	60%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 KumstatButvilasPoints won52%48%Serve points won71%68%Return points won32%29%Games held11 of 1211 of 12Break points saved3 of 43 of 4Aces77Double faults32
2026-08-31	Como	Clay	J. P. Varillas	1.35	71%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 KumstatVarillasPoints won42%58%Serve points won61%77%Return points won23%39%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 51 of 1Aces43Double faults30
2026-08-22	Prague	Clay	C. H. Tseng	1.44	67%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-0 KumstatTsengPoints won58%42%Serve points won72%54%Return points won46%28%Games held12 of 148 of 13Break points saved3 of 57 of 12Aces32Double faults27
2026-08-21	Prague	Clay	F. C. Jianu	1.33	73%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 KumstatJianuPoints won64%36%Serve points won90%59%Return points won41%10%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved0 of 03 of 6Aces62Double faults01
2026-08-20	Prague	Clay	M. Mrva	1.88	51%	WON
Games in each set6-1 7-5 KumstatMrvaPoints won60%40%Serve points won71%48%Return points won52%29%Games held8 of 95 of 10Break points saved1 of 20 of 5Aces34Double faults07
2026-08-19	Prague	Clay	S. Nagal	1.51	64%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 KumstatNagalPoints won56%44%Serve points won62%52%Return points won48%38%Games held8 of 106 of 11Break points saved7 of 96 of 11Aces61Double faults43
2026-08-18	Prague	Clay	P. Brunclik	1.67	57%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-1 KumstatBrunclikPoints won58%42%Serve points won71%60%Return points won40%29%Games held10 of 106 of 9Break points saved7 of 72 of 5Aces106Double faults46
2026-08-16	Hamburg	Clay	M. Moeller	1.53	62%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 7-5 KumstatMoellerPoints won51%49%Serve points won69%68%Return points won32%31%Games held16 of 1716 of 17Break points saved8 of 96 of 7Aces206Double faults22

Common questions

Who is favourite, Sho Shimabukuro or Jan Kumstat?

Sho Shimabukuro is favourite at 1.81, which is a 53% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Sho Shimabukuro vs Jan Kumstat?

Sho Shimabukuro is 1.81 and Jan Kumstat is 2.06, the prices we recorded for the Seoul match.

Who will win Sho Shimabukuro vs Jan Kumstat?

Our model makes it Jan Kumstat to win at 2.06 (Strong confidence).

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