ChallengerHardSeoul · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 03:00

Marin Cilic v Zhizhen Zhang

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

M. Cilic to win1.55

Worth backing at 1.46 or bigger · our chance 69% · market 62/38, us 69/31

M. Cilic is 2-8 over the last ten and 11-13 on hard this season. Z. Zhang is 2-8 over the last ten and 9-17 on hard this season. The head to head is M. Cilic 1-0.

The pick is M. Cilic to win. We make it a 69% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.46 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Cilic		Z. Zhang
80	Ranking	170
2-8	Last 10	2-8
LLWLL	Last 5	LWLLL
-2.2	V the odds	-2.9
15-19	Season	22-27
11-13	Hard 2026	9-17
0	Last 7 days	1
8d	Days rest	6d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 1-0

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. CilicFAV1.5562%

Z. Zhang2.5538%

Market says62% Cilic

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. CilicLLWLL

Z. ZhangLWLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

M. Cilic1

Z. Zhang0

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2024-09-24	ATP Hangzhou	M. CilicvZ. Zhang	7-6 7-6

This season & this event

M. Cilic

Z. Zhang

15-19

11-13

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

22-27

9-17

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Marin Cilic

Croatia

Zhizhen Zhang

China

Croatia

15–17

10–10

3–4

2–3

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

170

China

21–24

8–13

3–7

9–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Cilic — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	N. Basilashvili	2.33	58%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 5-7 CilicBasilashviliPoints won45%55%Serve points won54%65%Return points won35%46%Games held5 of 108 of 10Break points saved4 of 93 of 5Aces813Double faults53
2026-10-15	Jinan	Hard	Y. Watanuki	1.57	62%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 4-6 CilicWatanukiPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%68%Return points won32%38%Games held8 of 1110 of 11Break points saved6 of 91 of 2Aces711Double faults42
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	A. Walton	2.07	53%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-1 CilicWaltonPoints won57%43%Serve points won75%63%Return points won37%25%Games held12 of 139 of 12Break points saved0 of 11 of 4Aces175Double faults00
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	A. Fery	2.42	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 CilicFeryPoints won43%57%Serve points won56%70%Return points won30%44%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved3 of 61 of 2Aces66Double faults31
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	D. Merida Aguilar	2.31	58%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 1-6 1-6 CilicAguilarPoints won45%55%Serve points won57%65%Return points won35%43%Games held7 of 1210 of 11Break points saved2 of 74 of 5Aces59Double faults22
2026-08-05	Montreal	Hard	F. Tiafoe	2.89	66%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 2-6 2-6 CilicTiafoePoints won45%55%Serve points won59%74%Return points won26%41%Games held10 of 1413 of 14Break points saved3 of 75 of 6Aces99Double faults42
2026-08-04	Montreal	Hard	S. Shimabukuro	1.80	54%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-1 CilicShimabukuroPoints won58%42%Serve points won76%59%Return points won41%24%Games held9 of 97 of 10Break points saved4 of 41 of 4Aces26Double faults20
2026-06-29	Wimbledon	Grass	D. Medvedev	3.50	72%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 2-6 4-6 CilicMedvedevPoints won42%58%Serve points won50%65%Return points won35%50%Games held6 of 1311 of 12Break points saved1 of 83 of 4Aces216Double faults25
2026-06-16	London	Hard	U. Humbert	2.34	58%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 3-6 CilicHumbertPoints won43%57%Serve points won67%78%Return points won22%33%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved2 of 43 of 3Aces718Double faults13
2026-06-13	Hertogenbosch	Grass	D. Medvedev	2.87	66%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-3 1-6 CilicMedvedevPoints won44%56%Serve points won53%69%Return points won31%47%Games held7 of 1210 of 12Break points saved6 of 113 of 5Aces54Double faults12

Z. Zhang — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Guangzhou	Hard	Y. Zhou	2.07	54%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 ZhangZhouPoints won41%59%Serve points won64%85%Return points won15%36%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved5 of 70 of 0Aces97Double faults32
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	K. Uchida	1.09	87%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 ZhangUchidaPoints won56%44%Serve points won79%63%Return points won37%21%Games held10 of 109 of 11Break points saved0 of 04 of 6Aces117Double faults21
2026-10-14	W15 Shenzhen	Hard	X. Lan	—	—	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-0 3-6
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	T. Machac	3.00	68%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 6-7 2-6 ZhangMachacPoints won49%51%Serve points won57%61%Return points won39%43%Games held10 of 149 of 13Break points saved7 of 118 of 12Aces105Double faults11
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	A. Gea	3.90	75%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 ZhangGeaPoints won43%57%Serve points won52%65%Return points won35%48%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved1 of 52 of 4Aces16Double faults24
2026-09-23	Hangzhou	Hard	C. Wong	2.44	60%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 ZhangWongPoints won41%59%Serve points won53%71%Return points won29%47%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved1 of 51 of 2Aces110Double faults12
2026-07-29	Vancouver	Hard	J.J. Wolf	1.95	50%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-3 4-6 ZhangWolfPoints won48%52%Serve points won63%69%Return points won31%37%Games held14 of 1613 of 15Break points saved0 of 23 of 5Aces1214Double faults81
2026-07-22	Winnipeg	Hard	C. Broom	1.39	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 6-7 2-6 ZhangBroomPoints won51%49%Serve points won57%57%Return points won43%43%Games held10 of 1410 of 14Break points saved14 of 1811 of 15Aces115Double faults27
2026-07-21	Winnipeg	Hard	T. Zink	1.38	70%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 ZhangZinkPoints won55%45%Serve points won79%70%Return points won30%21%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved2 of 24 of 5Aces74Double faults20
2026-07-14	Granby	Hard	J. Boulais	1.31	73%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-7 ZhangBoulaisPoints won45%55%Serve points won57%67%Return points won33%43%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved11 of 146 of 7Aces66Double faults45

Common questions

Who is favourite, Marin Cilic or Zhizhen Zhang?

Marin Cilic is favourite at 1.55, which is a 62% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang?

Marin Cilic is 1.55 and Zhizhen Zhang is 2.55, the prices we recorded for the Seoul match.

What is the head-to-head between Marin Cilic and Zhizhen Zhang?

They have met 1 time and Marin Cilic leads 1-0.

Who will win Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang?

Our model makes it Marin Cilic to win at 1.55 (Solid confidence).

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