ChallengerHardSeoul · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 03:00

Taro Daniel v Andre Ilagan

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

A. Ilagan to win2.33

Worth backing at 2.25 or bigger · our chance 45% · market 59/41, us 55/45

A. Ilagan is 4-6 over the last ten and 40-28 on hard this season. T. Daniel is 4-6 over the last ten and 28-14 on hard this season.

The pick is A. Ilagan to win. We make it a 45% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.25 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

T. Daniel		A. Ilagan
177	Ranking	203
4-6	Last 10	4-6
LLLLW	Last 5	LWWLL
-1.8	V the odds	-0.2
38-19	Season	46-30
28-14	Hard 2026	40-28
0	Last 7 days	2
10d	Days rest	4d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

T. DanielFAV1.6459%

A. Ilagan2.3341%

Market says59% Daniel

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

T. DanielLLLLW

A. IlaganLWWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

T. Daniel

A. Ilagan

38-19

28-14

Lost R16 to Y. Zhou

Lost Final to N. Basilashvili

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

46-30

40-28

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Taro Daniel

Japan

Andre Ilagan

USA

177

Japan

38–18

17–12

21–6

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

203

USA

44–29

41–28

—

3–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

T. Daniel — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-17	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	N. Basilashvili	2.31	58%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 5-7 DanielBasilashviliPoints won41%59%Serve points won53%71%Return points won29%47%Games held6 of 109 of 10Break points saved2 of 61 of 2Aces47Double faults12
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	S. Mochizuki	1.68	57%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 2-6 2-6 DanielMochizukiPoints won48%52%Serve points won53%57%Return points won43%47%Games held7 of 129 of 12Break points saved3 of 84 of 7Aces35Double faults24
2026-09-28	Tokyo	Hard	D. Vallejo	—	—	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 DanielVallejoPoints won40%60%Serve points won55%75%Return points won25%45%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved2 of 53 of 3Aces46Double faults10
2026-09-25	Hangzhou	Hard	F. Marozsan	3.04	68%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 5-7 6-7 DanielMarozsanPoints won48%52%Serve points won67%75%Return points won25%33%Games held16 of 1817 of 18Break points saved8 of 101 of 2Aces98Double faults01
2026-09-24	Hangzhou	Hard	D. Sweeny	1.62	60%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 DanielSweenyPoints won54%46%Serve points won70%61%Return points won39%30%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved4 of 55 of 8Aces511Double faults34
2026-09-23	Hangzhou	Hard	H. Matsuoka	1.48	65%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 DanielMatsuokaPoints won52%48%Serve points won65%59%Return points won41%35%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 12 of 4Aces45Double faults14
2026-09-22	Hangzhou	Hard	Ja. Delaney	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 DanielDelaneyPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%63%Return points won37%24%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved1 of 18 of 10Aces515Double faults02
2026-09-09	Shanghai	Hard	M. Sharipov	1.57	61%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-7 DanielSharipovPoints won47%53%Serve points won61%69%Return points won31%39%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved6 of 91 of 3Aces414Double faults21
2026-09-07	Shanghai	Hard	M. Dellavedova	1.25	78%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-1 DanielDellavedovaPoints won59%41%Serve points won71%49%Return points won51%29%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved2 of 28 of 12Aces45Double faults11
2026-08-26	US Open	Hard	A. Johnson	1.16	82%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 2-6 4-6 DanielJohnsonPoints won49%51%Serve points won49%52%Return points won48%51%Games held6 of 137 of 13Break points saved6 of 138 of 14Aces44Double faults45

A. Ilagan — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-23	Guangzhou	Hard	Y. Zhou	2.48	61%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 IlaganZhouPoints won44%56%Serve points won60%75%Return points won25%40%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved2 of 51 of 2Aces99Double faults74
2026-10-21	Guangzhou	Hard	K. Sultanov	1.52	63%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 IlaganSultanovPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%55%Return points won45%29%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved3 of 41 of 5Aces1110Double faults11
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	M. Alkaya	1.52	63%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-1 IlaganAlkayaPoints won54%46%Serve points won75%62%Return points won38%25%Games held12 of 1310 of 13Break points saved4 of 57 of 10Aces820Double faults46
2026-10-14	Jinan	Hard	Y. Watanuki	2.22	56%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 IlaganWatanukiPoints won39%61%Serve points won50%76%Return points won24%50%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved7 of 112 of 2Aces211Double faults32
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	N. Basilashvili	2.96	68%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 7-6 5-7 IlaganBasilashviliPoints won50%50%Serve points won60%62%Return points won38%40%Games held11 of 1614 of 17Break points saved7 of 124 of 7Aces911Double faults37
2026-10-02	Jingshan	Hard	L. Harris	4.82	80%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 1-6 IlaganHarrisPoints won42%58%Serve points won50%67%Return points won33%50%Games held5 of 99 of 10Break points saved4 of 81 of 2Aces29Double faults12
2026-10-01	Jingshan	Hard	M. Sharipov	3.00	69%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-6 IlaganSharipovPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%65%Return points won35%24%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved2 of 26 of 8Aces414Double faults21
2026-09-29	Jingshan	Hard	M. Dellavedova	1.44	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 IlaganDellavedovaPoints won59%41%Serve points won83%54%Return points won46%17%Games held8 of 96 of 10Break points saved1 of 28 of 12Aces64Double faults00
2026-09-22	Chengdu	Hard	P. Bar Biryukov	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-7 IlaganBiryukovPoints won50%50%Serve points won74%71%Return points won29%26%Games held12 of 1212 of 12Break points saved4 of 45 of 5Aces1217Double faults27
2026-09-15	Tiburon	Hard	B. Nakashima	1.57	60%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 7-6 6-7 IlaganNakashimaPoints won51%49%Serve points won68%67%Return points won33%32%Games held16 of 1817 of 18Break points saved5 of 74 of 5Aces1516Double faults56

Common questions

Who is favourite, Taro Daniel or Andre Ilagan?

Taro Daniel is favourite at 1.64, which is a 59% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Taro Daniel vs Andre Ilagan?

Taro Daniel is 1.64 and Andre Ilagan is 2.33, the prices we recorded for the Seoul match.

Who will win Taro Daniel vs Andre Ilagan?

Our model makes it Andre Ilagan to win at 2.33 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Atmane v Kwon Cho v Bu Cilic v Zhang Harris v Shang Holmgren v Friend Hong v Wu