Shintaro Mochizuki v Pavel Kotov
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTP. Kotov is 8-2 over the last ten and 28-8 on hard this season. S. Mochizuki is 4-6 over the last ten and 12-20 on hard this season. P. Kotov took a medical timeout on 2026-09-15. P. Kotov has played 5 matches in seven days. The head to head is S. Mochizuki 0-1.
The pick is P. Kotov to win. We make it a 65% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.54 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| S. Mochizuki | P. Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Ranking | 188 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WLLLW | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| -0.9 | V the odds | +2.1 |
| 20-29 | Season | 29-12 |
| 12-20 | Hard 2026 | 28-8 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 5 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | MTO |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | S. MochizukivP. Kotov | 2 - 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Guangzhou 2 | S. MochizukivP. Kotov | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
S. Mochizuki — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Chengdu | Hard | M. Damm | 2 - 0 | 2.69 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | P. Kotov | 2 - 0 | 2.35 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Chengdu | Hard | L. Xiao | 2 - 1 | 1.06 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-15 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | P. Kotov | 0 - 2 | 1.88 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | J. Mensik | 3 - 0 | 7.50 | 87% | LOST |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | F. Passaro | 0 - 2 | 1.79 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | B. Shick | 2 - 0 | 1.59 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | D. Milavsky | 2 - 0 | 1.67 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-19 | Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification | Hard | S. Kwon | 2 - 1 | 3.01 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-08-12 | Cincinnati | Hard | J.J. Wolf | 2 - 1 | 2.57 | 63% | LOST |
P. Kotov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | S. Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | 1.63 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-22 | Chengdu | Hard | L. Castelnuovo | 1 - 2 | 1.32 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | M. Sharipov | 0 - 2 | 1.93 | 50% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | 1.77 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-09-18 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | R. Noguchi | 2 - 0 | 1.39 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-09-16 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | A. Santillan | 2 - 0 | 1.23 | 75% | WON |
| 2026-09-15 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | S. Mochizuki | 0 - 2 | 2.00 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-12 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Sharipov | 0 - 2 | 1.87 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-09-11 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Galarneau | 2 - 1 | 2.31 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-09-09 | Shanghai | Hard | Ja. Delaney | 2 - 0 | 1.28 | 76% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Shintaro Mochizuki or Pavel Kotov?
Pavel Kotov is favourite at 1.63, which is a 59% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov?
Shintaro Mochizuki is 2.35 and Pavel Kotov is 1.63, the prices we recorded for the Chengdu match.
What is the head-to-head between Shintaro Mochizuki and Pavel Kotov?
They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.
Who will win Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov?
Our model makes it Pavel Kotov to win at 1.58 (Lean confidence).