Nuno Borges v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanN. Borges is 7-3 over the last ten and 16-13 on hard this season. C. Ugo Carabelli is 3-7 over the last ten and 6-11 on hard this season.
The pick is N. Borges to win 2-0. We make it a 53% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.88 or bigger. At 1.57 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| N. Borges | C. Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Ranking | 61 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 3-7 |
| WLLWW | Last 5 | LLWLL |
| +1.2 | V the odds | -1.6 |
| 28-26 | Season | 21-23 |
| 16-13 | Hard 2026 | 6-11 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 4d | Days rest | 22d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | 22d out |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
N. Borges — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group II | - Preliminary | D. Duran | 0 - 2 | 1.00 | 95% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | L. Tien | 0 - 3 | 2.80 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | Hard | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | 2.51 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Rublev | 0 - 2 | 2.71 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | 1.81 | 53% | WON |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Kokkinakis | 2 - 1 | 1.41 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-08-08 | Montreal | Hard | L. Darderi | 1 - 2 | 1.57 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-08-06 | Montreal | Hard | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | 1.62 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | 1.58 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | A. Kovacevic | 1 - 2 | 1.44 | 68% | WON |
C. Ugo Carabelli — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Chengdu | Hard | F. Cina | 2 - 0 | 2.25 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | J-L. Struff | 0 - 3 | 2.81 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-08-21 | Cancun 2 | Hard | M. Echargui | 0 - 1 RET | 1.37 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Cancun 2 | Hard | N. Mejia | 2 - 0 | 1.88 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | 3.56 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | 4.56 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-07-20 | Estoril | Clay | T. Droguet | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-07-16 | Umag | clay | R. A. Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | 2.21 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-07-15 | Umag | clay | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | 2.32 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-07-14 | Umag | clay | M. Topo | 1 - 2 | 1.40 | 69% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Nuno Borges or Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Nuno Borges is favourite at 1.26, which is a 77% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Nuno Borges vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Nuno Borges is 1.26 and Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 4.29, the prices we recorded for the Chengdu match.
Who will win Nuno Borges vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Our model makes it Nuno Borges to win 2-0 at 1.57 (Lean confidence).