Sebastian Baez v Jenson Brooksby
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTS. Baez is 5-5 over the last ten and 23-11 on hard this season. J. Brooksby is 4-6 over the last ten and 9-15 on hard this season. S. Baez retired from a match in the last month. The head to head is S. Baez 2-0.
The pick is S. Baez to win. We make it a 48% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.08 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| S. Baez | J. Brooksby | |
|---|---|---|
| 65 | Ranking | 63 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| LWLLW | Last 5 | LLWLL |
| +0.2 | V the odds | -1.0 |
| 34-25 | Season | 12-22 |
| 23-11 | Hard 2026 | 9-15 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 23d | Days rest | 24d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| retired23d out | Fitness | 24d out |
| Head to head 2-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | S. BaezvJ. Brooksby | 0 - 2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Rome | J. BrooksbyvS. Baez | 0 - 2 |
| 2026-01-14 | Auckland | J. BrooksbyvS. Baez | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
S. Baez — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | J. Brooksby | 0 - 2 | 2.32 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | B. Nakashima | 3 - 0 | 6.53 | 85% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | H. Grenier | 0 - 2 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 1 - 0 RET | 1.67 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | Cancun 2 | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | 3.01 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Cancun 2 | Hard | L. Harris | 2 - 0 | 1.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-22 | Cancun 2 | Hard | C. Wong | 2 - 0 | 1.62 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-08-21 | Cancun 2 | Hard | R. Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | 1.55 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | 3.70 | 74% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | G. Dimitrov | 2 - 1 | 2.30 | 58% | WON |
J. Brooksby — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | S. Baez | 0 - 2 | 1.68 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | J. Faria | 3 - 2 | 1.84 | 53% | LOST |
| 2026-08-25 | Winston-Salem | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | 2.33 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Winston-Salem | Hard | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 0 - 2 | 1.54 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | J. Faria | 2 - 0 | 1.69 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | 3.56 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | A. Walton | 0 - 2 | 1.78 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-07-31 | Los Cabos | Hard | C. Wong | 2 - 0 | 1.53 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-07-30 | Los Cabos | Hard | E. Winter | 0 - 2 | 1.12 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-07-29 | Los Cabos | Hard | C. Moutet | 2 - 0 | 2.04 | 52% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Sebastian Baez or Jenson Brooksby?
Jenson Brooksby is favourite at 1.68, which is a 58% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Sebastian Baez vs Jenson Brooksby?
Sebastian Baez is 2.32 and Jenson Brooksby is 1.68, the prices we recorded for the Chengdu match.
What is the head-to-head between Sebastian Baez and Jenson Brooksby?
They have met 3 times and Sebastian Baez leads 2-1.
Who will win Sebastian Baez vs Jenson Brooksby?
Our model makes it Sebastian Baez to win at 2.10 (Lean confidence).