Sebastian Baez v Valentin Vacherot
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONV. Vacherot is 7-3 over the last ten and 13-13 on hard this season. S. Baez is 5-5 over the last ten and 24-13 on hard this season.
The pick is V. Vacherot to win 2-0. We make it a 46% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.17 or bigger. At 1.72 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| S. Baez | V. Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| 51 | Ranking | 14 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WLLLW | Last 5 | LWWWL |
| -0.0 | V the odds | +2.1 |
| 35-27 | Season | 23-16 |
| 24-13 | Hard 2026 | 13-13 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 3d | Days rest | 5d |
| 1 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Defending title |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | S. BaezvV. Vacherot | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
S. Baez — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | V. Vacherot | 0 - 2 | 3.55 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Giron | 1 - 2 | 1.76 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | J. Shang | 2 - 1 | 2.33 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | J. Brooksby | 0 - 2 | 2.36 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | B. Nakashima | 3 - 0 | 6.53 | 85% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | H. Grenier | 0 - 2 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 1 - 0 RET | 1.67 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | Cancun 2 | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | 3.01 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Cancun 2 | Hard | L. Harris | 2 - 0 | 1.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-22 | Cancun 2 | Hard | C. Wong | 2 - 0 | 1.62 | 56% | WON |
V. Vacherot — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Baez | 0 - 2 | 1.34 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Lehecka | 2 - 0 | 2.59 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Fils | 2 - 1 | 4.32 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-10-02 | Tokyo | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | 2.37 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Blockx | 2 - 0 | 2.17 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | Chengdu | Hard | L. Harris | 0 - 2 | 1.88 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | O. Virtanen | 1 - 2 | 1.65 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-18 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | E. Vasa | 0 - 2 | 1.02 | 89% | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | 2.68 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | K. Majchrzak | 3 - 1 | 1.73 | 56% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Sebastian Baez or Valentin Vacherot?
Valentin Vacherot is favourite at 1.34, which is a 73% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot?
Sebastian Baez is 3.55 and Valentin Vacherot is 1.34, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Sebastian Baez and Valentin Vacherot?
They have met 1 time and Valentin Vacherot leads 1-0.
Who will win Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot?
Our model makes it Valentin Vacherot to win 2-0 at 1.72 (Lean confidence).