Rafael Jodar v Casper Ruud
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONR. Jodar is 7-3 over the last ten and 36-13 on hard this season. C. Ruud is 7-3 over the last ten and 17-12 on hard this season.
The pick is R. Jodar to win. We make it a 55% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.82 or bigger. At 1.78 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| R. Jodar | C. Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ranking | 24 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WWWLW | Last 5 | WWWLW |
| +0.1 | V the odds | +0.7 |
| 54-17 | Season | 33-19 |
| 36-13 | Hard 2026 | 17-12 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 3 | Wins here | 3 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
R. Jodar — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | C. Ruud | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 2 | 1.54 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | J. Lehecka | 1 - 2 | 2.46 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | T. A. Tirante | 1 - 2 | 1.42 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Vallejo | 2 - 0 | 1.23 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-09-25 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | 1.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | C. Garin | 0 - 2 | 1.25 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | Y. Bu | 0 - 3 | 1.07 | 90% | LOST |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Cobolli | 1 - 2 | 1.33 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-08-17 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 | 1.40 | 67% | WON |
C. Ruud — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | 2.17 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 0 - 0 RET | 2.27 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | L. Tien | 0 - 2 | 2.37 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | Y. Bu | 0 - 2 | 2.01 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | 1.46 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-09-25 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | 1.85 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | F. Nidunjianzan | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-18 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | R. Te | 2 - 0 | 1.01 | 91% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | C. O'Connell | 1 - 0 RET | 1.32 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-08-08 | Montreal | Hard | J. Fonseca | 0 - 2 | 2.27 | 57% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Rafael Jodar or Casper Ruud?
Rafael Jodar is favourite at 1.78, which is a 55% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud?
Rafael Jodar is 1.78 and Casper Ruud is 2.17, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
Who will win Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud?
Our model makes it Rafael Jodar to win at 1.78 (Lean confidence).