Alexander Zverev v Alex De Minaur
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONA. Zverev is 8-2 over the last ten and 35-10 on hard this season. A. De Minaur is 9-1 over the last ten and 22-12 on hard this season. A. De Minaur took a medical timeout on 2026-10-06. A. De Minaur retired from a match in the last month. The head to head is A. Zverev 4-3.
The pick is A. Zverev to win. We make it a 67% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.51 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Zverev | A. De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ranking | 9 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 9-1 |
| WWWLW | Last 5 | WWLWW |
| -0.5 | V the odds | +2.9 |
| 61-15 | Season | 42-19 |
| 35-10 | Hard 2026 | 22-12 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 3 | Wins here | 2 |
| Clear | Fitness | MTOretired |
| Head to head 4-3 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Shanghai | A. ZverevvA. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | A. ZverevvA. De Minaur | 1 - 2 |
| 2025-09-20 | ATP Laver Cup | A. ZverevvA. De Minaur | 0 - 2 |
| 2024-06-05 | ATP French Open | A. ZverevvA. De Minaur | 3 - 0 |
| 2024-03-12 | ATP Indian Wells | A. ZverevvA. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| 2024-01-06 | ATP United Cup | A. De MinaurvA. Zverev | 2 - 1 |
| 2022-05-12 | Rome | A. De MinaurvA. Zverev | 0 - 2 |
| 2021-10-28 | Vienna | A. De MinaurvA. Zverev | 1 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Zverev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 | 1.53 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Bublik | 2 - 1 | 1.37 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | 1.15 | 84% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | Y. Wu | 2 - 0 | 1.11 | 87% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | 1.38 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | J. Shang | 2 - 0 | 1.07 | 90% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | 1.12 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | A. De Minaur | 1 - 2 | 1.30 | 74% | LOST |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | D. Prizmic | 2 - 0 | 1.09 | 87% | WON |
A. De Minaur — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Zverev | 2 - 0 | 2.70 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | K. Khachanov | 2 - 0 | 1.80 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | 1.42 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-10-06 | Beijing | Hard | N. Djokovic | 1 - 0 RET | 2.53 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Beijing | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 0 RET | 1.74 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | 1.75 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | 1.36 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | M. Navone | 2 - 0 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | 3.75 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alexander Zverev or Alex De Minaur?
Alexander Zverev is favourite at 1.53, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur?
Alexander Zverev is 1.53 and Alex De Minaur is 2.70, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur?
They have met 8 times and Alexander Zverev leads 5-3.
Who will win Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model makes it Alexander Zverev to win at 1.52 (Lean confidence).