Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidT. Paul is 7-3 over the last ten and 28-14 on hard this season. D. Medvedev is 10-0 over the last ten and 35-9 on hard this season. D. Medvedev took a medical timeout on 2026-10-12. The head to head is D. Medvedev 3-1.
The pick is T. Paul to win. We make it a 38% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.65 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| D. Medvedev | T. Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ranking | 17 |
| 10-0 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WWWWW | Last 5 | WWWLL |
| +2.2 | V the odds | +1.0 |
| 44-16 | Season | 43-19 |
| 35-9 | Hard 2026 | 28-14 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 3 | Wins here | 3 |
| MTODefending semi | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 3-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-12 | ATP Indian Wells | T. PaulvD. Medvedev | 0 - 2 |
| 2024-05-14 | ATP Rome | T. PaulvD. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-03-17 | ATP Indian Wells | T. PaulvD. Medvedev | 1 - 2 |
| 2023-09-29 | ATP Beijing | T. PaulvD. Medvedev | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
D. Medvedev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | 1.45 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Svrcina | 2 - 0 | 1.13 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | J-L. Struff | 2 - 1 | 1.14 | 85% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | 1.42 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Beijing | Hard | J-L. Struff | 2 - 0 | 1.17 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Beijing | Hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 0 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Hangzhou | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | 1.50 | 65% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Hangzhou | Hard | R. Safiullin | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Hangzhou | Hard | C. Wong | 2 - 1 | 1.26 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | Hangzhou | Hard | V. Royer | 2 - 0 | 1.28 | 76% | WON |
T. Paul — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | 1.48 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | V. Vacherot | 2 - 0 | 1.61 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Vallejo | 2 - 0 | 1.49 | 65% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 | 1.35 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 3 | 4.85 | 80% | LOST |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | 1.55 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Prizmic | 1 - 3 | 1.21 | 81% | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | C. Wong | 1 - 3 | 1.17 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Cobolli | 1 - 2 | 1.66 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | 3.36 | 71% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Daniil Medvedev or Tommy Paul?
Daniil Medvedev is favourite at 1.47, which is a 66% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul?
Daniil Medvedev is 1.47 and Tommy Paul is 2.91, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul?
They have met 4 times and Daniil Medvedev leads 3-1.
Who will win Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul?
Our model makes it Tommy Paul to win at 2.91 (Solid confidence).