Mattia Bellucci v Elias Ymer
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONE. Ymer is 4-6 over the last ten and 14-18 on hard this season. M. Bellucci is 6-4 over the last ten and 20-17 on hard this season. M. Bellucci has played 6 matches in seven days. The head to head is M. Bellucci 1-1.
The pick is E. Ymer to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 47% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.15 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Bellucci | E. Ymer | |
|---|---|---|
| 91 | Ranking | 197 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| LWWWW | Last 5 | LWLLW |
| +0.3 | V the odds | +0.5 |
| 33-27 | Season | 20-23 |
| 20-17 | Hard 2026 | 14-18 |
| 6 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 1d | Days rest | 4d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | M. BelluccivE. Ymer | 2 - 1 |
| 2024-08-10 | Cary Challenger Men | M. BelluccivE. Ymer | 2 - 0 |
| 2023-10-05 | Alicante Challenger Men | M. BelluccivE. Ymer | 1 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Bellucci — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Muller | 2 - 0 | 1.46 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | E. Ymer | 2 - 1 | 1.11 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Jingshan | Hard | L. Harris | 1 - 2 | 1.94 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-10-03 | Jingshan | Hard | Y. Erel | 0 - 2 | 1.24 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Walton | 0 - 2 | 1.87 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Muller | 2 - 0 | 1.53 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Jingshan | Hard | K. Saitoh | 2 - 0 | 1.04 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Jingshan | Hard | F. Peliwo | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Hangzhou | Hard | K. Majchrzak | 0 - 2 | 2.25 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | T. Fritz | 3 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
E. Ymer — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Bellucci | 2 - 1 | 6.93 | 86% | LOST |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | F. Cina | 1 - 2 | 3.47 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Jingshan | Hard | T. Atmane | 1 - 1 RET | 4.08 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Galarneau | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-18 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | M. Sharipov | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-16 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | L. Castelnuovo | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-14 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | S. Pankin | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | Shanghai | Hard | P. Kotov | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | Zhangjiagang | Hard | Y. H. Hsu | 1 - 0 RET | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | C. Garin | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Mattia Bellucci or Elias Ymer?
Mattia Bellucci is favourite at 1.11, which is a 86% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Mattia Bellucci vs Elias Ymer?
Mattia Bellucci is 1.11 and Elias Ymer is 6.93, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Mattia Bellucci and Elias Ymer?
They have met 3 times and Mattia Bellucci leads 2-1.
Who will win Mattia Bellucci vs Elias Ymer?
Our model makes it Elias Ymer to win a set (Lean confidence).