ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-04 10:00

Matteo Berrettini v Ugo Humbert

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

M. Berrettini to win2.08

Worth backing at 1.85 or bigger · our chance 54% · market 47/53, us 54/46

M. Berrettini is 5-5 over the last ten and 12-12 on hard this season. U. Humbert is 3-7 over the last ten and 14-19 on hard this season. U. Humbert took a medical timeout on 2026-10-28. The head to head is M. Berrettini 2-1.

The pick is M. Berrettini to win. We make it a 54% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.85 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Berrettini		U. Humbert
48	Ranking	32
5-5	Last 10	3-7
WLWWL	Last 5	WLLLL
-0.1	V the odds	-2.2
25-21	Season	27-27
12-12	Hard 2026	14-19
3	Last 7 days	1
2d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	MTO
	Head to head 2-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. Berrettini2.0647%

U. HumbertFAV1.8453%

Market says53% Humbert

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. BerrettiniWLWWL

U. HumbertWLLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

M. Berrettini2

U. Humbert1

Head to head3 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2025-10-16	Stockholm	U. HumbertvM. Berrettini	7-6 6-3
2023-08-29	ATP US Open	U. HumbertvM. Berrettini	4-6 2-6 2-6
2022-01-04	ATP ATP Cup	M. BerrettinivU. Humbert	6-4 7-6

This season & this event

M. Berrettini

U. Humbert

25-21

12-12

Did not play

Lost R64 to A. Popyrin

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

27-27

14-19

Reached R64

Lost Final to A. Zverev

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

Ugo Humbert

France

Italy

23–20

9–9

12–10

2–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

France

26–23

13–14

5–5

8–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Berrettini — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Paris	Hard (Indoor)	B. Nakashima		2.39	59%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 7-6 BerrettiniNakashimaPoints won51%49%Serve points won79%73%Return points won27%21%Games held14 of 1515 of 16Break points saved1 of 23 of 4Aces179Double faults11
2026-10-30	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	A. De Minaur		3.01	68%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 BerrettiniMinaurPoints won45%55%Serve points won61%70%Return points won30%39%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 36 of 6Aces45Double faults02
2026-10-29	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	F. Cobolli	RET	1.93	51%	WON
Games in each set5-2 BerrettiniCobolliPoints won56%44%Serve points won68%53%Return points won47%32%Games held4 of 42 of 3Break points saved0 of 04 of 5Aces30Double faults01
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	T. M. Etcheverry		1.58	61%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 BerrettiniEtcheverryPoints won55%45%Serve points won73%70%Return points won30%27%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved6 of 61 of 3Aces126Double faults01
2026-10-20	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	K. Jacquet		1.75	56%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniJacquetPoints won48%52%Serve points won71%70%Return points won30%29%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved0 of 15 of 5Aces1316Double faults10
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	B. Nakashima		2.40	59%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniNakashimaPoints won49%51%Serve points won75%75%Return points won25%25%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved3 of 43 of 3Aces125Double faults41
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	A. Kovacevic		1.52	64%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-4 BerrettiniKovacevicPoints won58%42%Serve points won84%59%Return points won41%16%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved0 of 08 of 11Aces233Double faults44
2026-10-03	Tokyo	Hard	D. Vallejo		1.62	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 BerrettiniVallejoPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%77%Return points won23%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 53 of 3Aces45Double faults00
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	A. Davidovich Fokina		2.32	58%	WON
Games in each set1-6 7-6 6-4 BerrettiniFokinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved4 of 71 of 3Aces164Double faults12
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	M. Navone		1.57	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 4-6 6-7 BerrettiniNavonePoints won48%52%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held17 of 2018 of 20Break points saved4 of 77 of 9Aces155Double faults64

U. Humbert — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Paris	Hard (Indoor)	B. Van De Zandschulp	1.57	62%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-7 6-3 HumbertZandschulpPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%62%Return points won38%31%Games held14 of 1712 of 16Break points saved1 of 43 of 7Aces143Double faults67
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	N. Djokovic	3.11	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 4-6 HumbertDjokovicPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%67%Return points won33%37%Games held12 of 1414 of 15Break points saved6 of 85 of 6Aces129Double faults33
2026-10-19	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	C. Moutet	1.36	71%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 7-6 6-7 HumbertMoutetPoints won49%51%Serve points won63%61%Return points won39%37%Games held12 of 1614 of 16Break points saved6 of 1010 of 12Aces121Double faults22
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	A. Gea	2.04	52%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 1-6 HumbertGeaPoints won46%54%Serve points won62%69%Return points won31%38%Games held9 of 1311 of 13Break points saved2 of 63 of 5Aces58Double faults34
2026-10-03	Tokyo	Hard	J. Lehecka	2.53	61%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 4-6 4-6 HumbertLeheckaPoints won47%53%Serve points won69%79%Return points won21%31%Games held14 of 1615 of 16Break points saved7 of 91 of 2Aces415Double faults23
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	B. Nakashima	2.83	66%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 HumbertNakashimaPoints won64%36%Serve points won88%52%Return points won48%12%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved0 of 09 of 12Aces61Double faults12
2026-08-16	Cincinnati	Hard	M. Zheng	1.90	51%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 HumbertZhengPoints won45%55%Serve points won55%67%Return points won33%45%Games held7 of 109 of 9Break points saved4 of 71 of 1Aces34Double faults83
2026-08-06	Montreal	Hard	D. Merida Aguilar	1.43	68%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 HumbertAguilarPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%65%Return points won35%46%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved9 of 131 of 2Aces44Double faults74
2026-07-31	Washington	Hard	B. Shelton	2.99	67%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 3-6 4-6 HumbertSheltonPoints won47%53%Serve points won65%71%Return points won29%35%Games held12 of 1515 of 16Break points saved5 of 85 of 6Aces78Double faults54
2026-07-28	Washington	Hard	A. Martin	1.23	79%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-5 HumbertMartinPoints won57%43%Serve points won66%54%Return points won46%34%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved3 of 40 of 4Aces34Double faults55

Common questions

Who is favourite, Matteo Berrettini or Ugo Humbert?

Ugo Humbert is favourite at 1.84, which is a 53% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert?

Matteo Berrettini is 2.06 and Ugo Humbert is 1.84, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

What is the head-to-head between Matteo Berrettini and Ugo Humbert?

They have met 3 times and Matteo Berrettini leads 2-1.

Who will win Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert?

Our model makes it Matteo Berrettini to win at 2.08 (Strong confidence).

Also at this event

Buse v Medvedev Zverev v Musetti Ruud v Jodar Fils v Machac Bellucci v Rinderknech Etcheverry v Minaur