Matteo Arnaldi v Taylor Fritz
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidLOSTM. Arnaldi is 4-6 over the last ten and 4-9 on hard this season. T. Fritz is 5-5 over the last ten and 22-13 on hard this season. T. Fritz took a medical timeout on 2026-10-01. The head to head is M. Arnaldi 1-1.
The pick is M. Arnaldi to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 58% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.73 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Arnaldi | T. Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Ranking | 12 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 5-5 |
| WLWLL | Last 5 | LLLWW |
| -0.9 | V the odds | -2.4 |
| 20-17 | Season | 33-18 |
| 4-9 | Hard 2026 | 22-13 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 2d | Days rest | 10d |
| 1 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | MTO |
| Head to head 1-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | M. ArnaldivT. Fritz | 0 - 2 |
| 2025-07-25 | Washington | T. FritzvM. Arnaldi | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-02-27 | ATP Acapulco | M. ArnaldivT. Fritz | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Arnaldi — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | 4.27 | 77% | LOST |
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Tomic | 0 - 2 | 1.46 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | 10.41 | 91% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | 2.12 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | 1.61 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Landaluce | 2 - 1 | 2.18 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-08-07 | Montreal | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | 2.84 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | F. Marozsan | 1 - 2 | 2.30 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-07-27 | Washington | Hard | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 RET | 2.44 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-07-16 | Umag | clay | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | 1.48 | 66% | LOST |
T. Fritz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 2 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Munar | 1 - 2 | 1.31 | 74% | LOST |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | 3.63 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-09-05 | US Open | Hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 3 | 1.15 | 85% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | M. Bellucci | 3 - 0 | 1.11 | 87% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | Dar. Blanch | 3 - 0 | 1.03 | 94% | WON |
| 2026-08-21 | Cincinnati | Hard | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | 1.56 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | Hard | C. O'Connell | 2 - 0 | 1.10 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | 1.24 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | 1.63 | 59% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Matteo Arnaldi or Taylor Fritz?
Taylor Fritz is favourite at 1.26, which is a 77% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz?
Matteo Arnaldi is 4.27 and Taylor Fritz is 1.26, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Matteo Arnaldi and Taylor Fritz?
They have met 3 times and Taylor Fritz leads 2-1.
Who will win Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz?
Our model makes it Matteo Arnaldi to win a set (Solid confidence).