ATPHard (Indoor)Almaty2026-10-21 08:00

James Duckworth v Luciano Darderi

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

L. Darderi to win1.73

Worth backing at 1.71 or bigger · our chance 59% · market 45/55, us 41/59

L. Darderi is 5-5 over the last ten and 17-14 on hard this season. J. Duckworth is 4-6 over the last ten and 19-18 on hard this season. J. Duckworth took a medical timeout on 2026-10-14.

The pick is L. Darderi to win. We make it a 59% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.71 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

J. Duckworth		L. Darderi
63	Ranking	21
4-6	Last 10	5-5
WLLLL	Last 5	LLWLW
-0.2	V the odds	+0.1
27-27	Season	35-26
19-18	Hard 2026	17-14
2	Last 7 days	0
2d	Days rest	11d
1	Wins here	0
MTODefending semi	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

J. Duckworth2.1045%

L. DarderiFAV1.7355%

Market says55% Darderi

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

J. DuckworthWLLLL

L. DarderiLLWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

J. Duckworth

Defending semi

L. Darderi

27-27

19-18

Lost SF to D. Medvedev

Lost R32 to A. Vukic

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

35-26

17-14

Lost R16 to S. Mochizuki

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

James Duckworth

Australia

Luciano Darderi

Italy

Australia

26–25

13–15

11–4

2–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Italy

35–23

12–10

22–11

1–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

J. Duckworth — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	M. Kecmanovic		2.48	61%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 DuckworthKecmanovicPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%61%Return points won39%32%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved2 of 31 of 4Aces64Double faults23
2026-10-14	Jinan	Hard	L. Draxl		1.67	58%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 DuckworthDraxlPoints won45%55%Serve points won58%67%Return points won33%42%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved0 of 310 of 11Aces27Double faults21
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	H. Hurkacz		2.95	67%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 DuckworthHurkaczPoints won45%55%Serve points won73%78%Return points won22%27%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces619Double faults11
2026-09-28	Beijing	Hard	R. Te	0 - 0	—	—	LOST
2026-09-23	Chengdu	Hard	L. Sonego		2.28	57%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 DuckworthSonegoPoints won44%56%Serve points won63%77%Return points won23%37%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved3 of 50 of 0Aces410Double faults11
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	K. Majchrzak		2.12	56%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 3-6 3-6 DuckworthMajchrzakPoints won49%51%Serve points won58%59%Return points won41%42%Games held8 of 139 of 13Break points saved3 of 85 of 9Aces912Double faults32
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	Y. Wu		2.34	58%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 3-6 1-6 DuckworthWuPoints won41%59%Serve points won55%78%Return points won22%45%Games held9 of 1414 of 14Break points saved9 of 140 of 0Aces912Double faults81
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	M. Arnaldi		2.45	60%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-2 7-6 DuckworthArnaldiPoints won52%48%Serve points won63%59%Return points won41%37%Games held17 of 2114 of 20Break points saved11 of 1513 of 19Aces165Double faults47
2026-08-29	Winston-Salem	Hard	A. Fery	RET	2.37	59%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-1 DuckworthFeryPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%82%Return points won18%38%Games held6 of 76 of 6Break points saved3 of 40 of 0Aces04Double faults40
2026-08-28	Winston-Salem	Hard	F. Marozsan		2.41	60%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-2 6-4 DuckworthMarozsanPoints won52%48%Serve points won62%58%Return points won42%38%Games held12 of 159 of 15Break points saved5 of 86 of 12Aces81Double faults86

L. Darderi — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	S. Tsitsipas	3.08	68%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 DarderiTsitsipasPoints won44%56%Serve points won66%77%Return points won23%34%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 53 of 3Aces416Double faults02
2026-10-02	Tokyo	Hard	K. Jacquet	1.70	56%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 DarderiJacquetPoints won45%55%Serve points won64%79%Return points won21%36%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved5 of 60 of 0Aces115Double faults01
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	C. Ruud	2.90	67%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 DarderiRuudPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%55%Return points won45%29%Games held9 of 117 of 10Break points saved6 of 85 of 8Aces1311Double faults34
2026-09-08	US Open	Hard	A. Zverev	8.51	89%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 6-7 DarderiZverevPoints won42%58%Serve points won58%78%Return points won22%42%Games held10 of 1414 of 14Break points saved13 of 171 of 1Aces913Double faults75
2026-09-05	US Open	Hard	D. Sweeny	1.29	76%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 6-3 DarderiSweenyPoints won57%43%Serve points won66%53%Return points won47%34%Games held12 of 148 of 14Break points saved6 of 82 of 8Aces72Double faults44
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	D. Svrcina	1.72	57%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-7 6-4 6-4 DarderiSvrcinaPoints won53%47%Serve points won55%50%Return points won50%45%Games held14 of 2110 of 20Break points saved13 of 2011 of 21Aces1611Double faults920
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	H. Wendelken	1.31	74%	WON
Games in each set6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5 DarderiWendelkenPoints won53%47%Serve points won60%55%Return points won45%40%Games held15 of 1911 of 18Break points saved13 of 1713 of 20Aces1510Double faults57
2026-08-26	Winston-Salem	Hard	B. Van De Zandschulp	2.34	58%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 0-6 DarderiZandschulpPoints won37%63%Serve points won40%66%Return points won34%60%Games held1 of 67 of 7Break points saved3 of 81 of 1Aces012Double faults35
2026-08-25	Winston-Salem	Hard	M. Bellucci	1.88	52%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-2 DarderiBellucciPoints won51%49%Serve points won66%62%Return points won38%34%Games held11 of 1310 of 13Break points saved5 of 79 of 12Aces38Double faults53
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	R. Hijikata	1.63	60%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 DarderiHijikataPoints won43%57%Serve points won60%76%Return points won24%40%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved3 of 60 of 0Aces210Double faults12

Common questions

Who is favourite, James Duckworth or Luciano Darderi?

Luciano Darderi is favourite at 1.73, which is a 55% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi?

James Duckworth is 2.10 and Luciano Darderi is 1.73, the prices we recorded for the Almaty match.

Who will win James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi?

Our model makes it Luciano Darderi to win at 1.73 (Lean confidence).

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