ATPHard (Indoor)Almaty2026-10-21 08:00
Adrian Mannarino v Andrey Rublev
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidA. Mannarino to win a set (set handicap +1.5)
A. Mannarino is 6-4 over the last ten and 17-22 on hard this season. A. Rublev is 6-4 over the last ten and 18-14 on hard this season. The head to head is A. Mannarino 1-4.
The pick is A. Mannarino to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.75 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Mannarino | A. Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| 83 | Ranking | 23 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WLWWL | Last 5 | LLWWL |
| +1.0 | V the odds | -0.6 |
| 22-32 | Season | 35-22 |
| 17-22 | Hard 2026 | 18-14 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 2d | Days rest | 11d |
| 1 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-4 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
A. Mannarino4.0023%
A. RublevFAV1.2277%
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
A. Mannarino1
A. Rublev4
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Others matches | A. RublevvA. Mannarino | 12-17 11-13 18-11 18-12 2-0 |
| 2025-07-04 | Wimbledon | A. RublevvA. Mannarino | 7-5 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-10-09 | ATP Shanghai | A. MannarinovA. Rublev | 3-6 |
| 2022-10-07 | Astana | A. MannarinovA. Rublev | 1-6 2-6 |
| 2021-10-21 | Moscow | A. RublevvA. Mannarino | 7-5 6-7 3-6 |
This season & this event
A. Mannarino
A. Rublev
22-32
17-22
Did not play
Lost R16 to A. Vukic
2026 record
2026 on hard
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
35-22
18-14
Did not play
Did not play
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Adrian Mannarino
France
Andrey Rublev
World
83
38
France
19–31
0
13–18
0–8
6–5
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
23
29
World
33–19
1
17–11
16–6
0–2
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Mannarino — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Vukic | 1.61 | 60% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 4-6 6-3 MannarinoVukicPoints won54%46%Serve points won75%64%Return points won36%25%Games held15 of 1614 of 15Break points saved0 of 17 of 8Aces138Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | K. Khachanov | 3.95 | 75% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 4-6 MannarinoKhachanovPoints won40%60%Serve points won55%76%Return points won24%45%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved0 of 40 of 1Aces310Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | F. Cobolli | 2.65 | 63% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 4-6 6-3 MannarinoCobolliPoints won53%47%Serve points won62%58%Return points won42%38%Games held11 of 138 of 13Break points saved7 of 95 of 10Aces510Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | N. Basilashvili | RET | 1.90 | 51% | WON |
Games in each set6-3 2-2 MannarinoBasilashviliPoints won59%41%Serve points won85%65%Return points won35%15%Games held7 of 75 of 6Break points saved0 of 00 of 1Aces38Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-09-29 | Beijing | Hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 2.44 | 61% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 MannarinoCarreno-BustaPoints won43%57%Serve points won64%75%Return points won25%36%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved4 of 73 of 4Aces51Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-09-28 | Beijing | Hard | M. Kecmanovic | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 3-6 7-6 MannarinoKecmanovicPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%58%Return points won42%38%Games held11 of 1613 of 17Break points saved5 of 107 of 11Aces87Double faults23 | |||||||
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | D. Shapovalov | 3.10 | 69% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 3-6 2-6 MannarinoShapovalovPoints won48%52%Serve points won68%68%Return points won32%32%Games held11 of 1514 of 14Break points saved4 of 84 of 4Aces614Double faults19 | |||||||
| 2026-09-25 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Tabilo | 2.50 | 61% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MannarinoTabiloPoints won52%48%Serve points won71%68%Return points won32%29%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved3 of 31 of 3Aces106Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | J. Shang | 2.88 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-2 MannarinoShangPoints won58%42%Serve points won82%60%Return points won40%18%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 08 of 10Aces88Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-09-17 | Rennes | Hard (Indoor) | M. Bobichon | 1.16 | 81% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 5-7 MannarinoBobichonPoints won44%56%Serve points won60%69%Return points won31%40%Games held7 of 1010 of 11Break points saved2 of 54 of 5Aces15Double faults11 | |||||||
A. Rublev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 1.38 | 71% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 4-6 RublevSakamotoPoints won47%53%Serve points won67%71%Return points won29%33%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 32 of 2Aces98Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2.09 | 54% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-1 2-6 3-6 RublevMinaurPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%63%Return points won37%42%Games held8 of 129 of 12Break points saved7 of 119 of 12Aces71Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-03 | Beijing | Hard | R. Safiullin | 1.71 | 57% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 3-6 6-4 RublevSafiullinPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%59%Return points won41%31%Games held12 of 1311 of 14Break points saved0 of 19 of 12Aces1215Double faults13 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 1.57 | 62% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 5-7 7-6 RublevGriekspoorPoints won50%50%Serve points won71%72%Return points won28%29%Games held16 of 1716 of 17Break points saved4 of 55 of 6Aces1919Double faults24 | |||||||
| 2026-09-29 | Hangzhou | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2.81 | 65% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 4-6 RublevMedvedevPoints won47%53%Serve points won67%72%Return points won28%33%Games held9 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 72 of 2Aces423Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-09-28 | Hangzhou | Hard | K. Jacquet | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-1 RublevJacquetPoints won58%42%Serve points won80%63%Return points won37%20%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 05 of 7Aces56Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-09-27 | Hangzhou | Hard | H. Gaston | 1.25 | 78% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 7-6 6-1 RublevGastonPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%56%Return points won44%35%Games held13 of 1610 of 15Break points saved3 of 610 of 15Aces115Double faults45 | |||||||
| 2026-09-25 | Hangzhou | Hard | R. Hijikata | 1.38 | 70% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-3 RublevHijikataPoints won59%41%Serve points won82%56%Return points won44%18%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 06 of 9Aces123Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 1.67 | 59% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 2-6 4-6 4-6 RublevAguilarPoints won47%53%Serve points won61%67%Return points won33%39%Games held15 of 2019 of 20Break points saved6 of 115 of 6Aces139Double faults89 | |||||||
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | O. Virtanen | 1.17 | 83% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-7 6-0 6-2 7-6 RublevVirtanenPoints won56%44%Serve points won74%59%Return points won41%26%Games held23 of 2518 of 25Break points saved6 of 817 of 24Aces2019Double faults37 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Adrian Mannarino or Andrey Rublev?
Andrey Rublev is favourite at 1.22, which is a 77% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey Rublev?
Adrian Mannarino is 4.00 and Andrey Rublev is 1.22, the prices we recorded for the Almaty match.
What is the head-to-head between Adrian Mannarino and Andrey Rublev?
They have met 5 times and Andrey Rublev leads 4-1.
Who will win Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model makes it Adrian Mannarino to win a set (Solid confidence).