ATPHard (Indoor)Almaty2026-10-21 08:00

Facundo Diaz Acosta v Nikoloz Basilashvili

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

N. Basilashvili to win1.50

Worth backing at 1.49 or bigger · our chance 67% · market 36/64, us 33/67

N. Basilashvili is 8-2 over the last ten and 17-16 on hard this season. F. Diaz Acosta is 6-4 over the last ten and 7-6 on hard this season. N. Basilashvili retired from a match in the last month.

The pick is N. Basilashvili to win. We make it a 67% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.49 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

F. Diaz Acosta		N. Basilashvili
69	Ranking	121
6-4	Last 10	8-2
WLLLW	Last 5	WWWLW
+0.7	V the odds	+3.3
50-20	Season	29-30
7-6	Hard 2026	17-16
1	Last 7 days	3
2d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	3
Clear	Fitness	retired
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

F. Diaz Acosta2.6336%

N. BasilashviliFAV1.5064%

Market says64% Basilashvili

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

F. Diaz AcostaWLLLW

N. BasilashviliWWWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

F. Diaz Acosta

N. Basilashvili

50-20

7-6

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

29-30

17-16

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Argentina

49–19

1–4

48–14

0–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

121

Georgia

25–29

11–14

12–12

2–3

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

F. Diaz Acosta — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	T. A. Tirante	3.48	72%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-4 AcostaTirantePoints won56%44%Serve points won75%62%Return points won38%25%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved5 of 51 of 4Aces413Double faults21
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	S. Mochizuki	1.71	56%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-7 AcostaMochizukiPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%70%Return points won30%34%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved4 of 61 of 1Aces34Double faults16
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	N. Borges	3.81	75%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 AcostaBorgesPoints won45%55%Serve points won61%70%Return points won30%39%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 35 of 5Aces29Double faults01
2026-09-15	Szczecin	Clay	D. E. Galan	1.17	80%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 2-6 3-6 AcostaGalanPoints won48%52%Serve points won60%65%Return points won35%40%Games held10 of 1512 of 14Break points saved4 of 95 of 7Aces27Double faults41
2026-09-13	Seville	Clay	D. Lajovic	1.62	60%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 AcostaLajovicPoints won64%36%Serve points won76%48%Return points won52%24%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved0 of 01 of 5Aces31Double faults02
2026-09-12	Seville	Clay	J. Munar	1.99	51%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 7-6 AcostaMunarPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%62%Return points won38%33%Games held13 of 1612 of 15Break points saved4 of 74 of 7Aces45Double faults34
2026-09-11	Seville	Clay	S. Ofner	1.57	62%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 AcostaOfnerPoints won56%44%Serve points won64%54%Return points won46%36%Games held8 of 105 of 10Break points saved6 of 82 of 7Aces21Double faults04
2026-09-09	Seville	Clay	A. Moro Canas	1.35	71%	WON
Games in each set6-1 7-5 AcostaCanasPoints won56%44%Serve points won65%56%Return points won44%35%Games held9 of 105 of 9Break points saved1 of 22 of 6Aces11Double faults10
2026-09-07	Seville	Clay	P. Martin Tiffon	1.27	76%	WON
Games in each set6-3 2-6 6-2 AcostaTiffonPoints won55%45%Serve points won66%56%Return points won44%34%Games held10 of 138 of 12Break points saved9 of 126 of 10Aces04Double faults05
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	Q. Halys	3.62	73%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 7-6 1-6 AcostaHalysPoints won45%55%Serve points won60%68%Return points won32%40%Games held14 of 2019 of 21Break points saved6 of 125 of 7Aces1218Double faults79

N. Basilashvili — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	M. Cilic		1.67	58%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-5 BasilashviliCilicPoints won55%45%Serve points won65%54%Return points won46%35%Games held8 of 105 of 10Break points saved3 of 54 of 9Aces138Double faults35
2026-10-18	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	A. Walton		1.72	56%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 BasilashviliWaltonPoints won53%47%Serve points won76%64%Return points won36%24%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved0 of 011 of 12Aces1115Double faults11
2026-10-17	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	T. Daniel		1.65	58%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-5 BasilashviliDanielPoints won59%41%Serve points won71%53%Return points won47%29%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 22 of 6Aces74Double faults21
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	A. Mannarino	RET	1.97	51%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-2 BasilashviliMannarinoPoints won41%59%Serve points won65%85%Return points won15%35%Games held5 of 67 of 7Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces83Double faults21
2026-10-06	Shanghai	Hard	L. Draxl		1.68	57%	WON
Games in each set5-7 7-5 6-4 BasilashviliDraxlPoints won52%48%Serve points won67%64%Return points won36%33%Games held15 of 1714 of 17Break points saved4 of 65 of 8Aces1112Double faults31
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	A. Ilagan		1.42	68%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-7 7-5 BasilashviliIlaganPoints won50%50%Serve points won62%60%Return points won40%38%Games held14 of 1711 of 16Break points saved4 of 77 of 12Aces119Double faults73
2026-09-28	Chengdu	Hard	A. Davidovich Fokina		—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-4 4-6 3-6 BasilashviliFokinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won71%66%Return points won34%29%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved2 of 57 of 9Aces136Double faults13
2026-09-27	Chengdu	Hard	J. Brooksby		2.06	53%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 BasilashviliBrooksbyPoints won54%46%Serve points won70%60%Return points won40%30%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 15 of 7Aces93Double faults12
2026-09-25	Chengdu	Hard	B. Van De Zandschulp		2.68	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 BasilashviliZandschulpPoints won57%43%Serve points won79%62%Return points won38%21%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 03 of 5Aces87Double faults25
2026-09-24	Chengdu	Hard	M. Kecmanovic		2.38	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 BasilashviliKecmanovicPoints won55%45%Serve points won79%61%Return points won39%21%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved0 of 011 of 12Aces138Double faults21

Common questions

Who is favourite, Facundo Diaz Acosta or Nikoloz Basilashvili?

Nikoloz Basilashvili is favourite at 1.50, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?

Facundo Diaz Acosta is 2.63 and Nikoloz Basilashvili is 1.50, the prices we recorded for the Almaty match.

Who will win Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?

Our model makes it Nikoloz Basilashvili to win at 1.50 (Lean confidence).

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