Goncalo Marques v Petr Nesterov
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTP. Nesterov is 6-4 over the last ten and 31-14 on clay this season. G. Marques is 6-4 over the last ten and 2-2 on clay this season. G. Marques retired from a match in the last month.
The pick is P. Nesterov to win 2-0. We make it a 39% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.59 or bigger. At 2.09 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| G. Marques | P. Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| 2155 | Ranking | 428 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WWLLW | Last 5 | WWLLL |
| +1.1 | V the odds | -0.3 |
| 26-19 | Season | 50-21 |
| 2-2 | Clay 2026 | 31-14 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 2 | Wins here | 2 |
| retired | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Porto | G. MarquesvP. Nesterov | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
G. Marques — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Porto | Clay | P. Nesterov | 2 - 1 | 2.69 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Porto | Clay | C. Langmo | 2 - 0 | 1.63 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Porto | Clay | G. Kravchenko | 1 - 2 | 2.29 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-09-16 | M25 Sintra 2 | Hard | L. Maxted | 0 - 0 RET | 2.18 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-09-13 | M25 Sintra | Hard | P. Schoen | 2 - 0 | 3.13 | 70% | LOST |
| 2026-09-12 | M25 Sintra | Hard | F. Tabacco | 2 - 1 | 1.83 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-11 | M25 Sintra | Hard | F. Murgett | 2 - 0 | 1.53 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-09-10 | M25 Sintra | Hard | T. Curras Abasolo | 2 - 0 | 1.37 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-09-09 | M25 Sintra | Hard | L. Nunez | 2 - 0 | 1.03 | 93% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | Porto 2 | Clay | G. Heide | 2 - 0 | 8.07 | 88% | LOST |
P. Nesterov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Porto | Clay | G. Marques | 2 - 1 | 1.41 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Porto | Clay | M. Topo | 2 - 0 | 1.92 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Porto | Clay | G. Tabacco | 2 - 1 | 1.57 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-21 | Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification | Clay | C. Taberner | 2 - 1 | 2.50 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | Plovdiv 3 (Bulgaria) - Qualification | Clay | Y. Milev | 1 - 2 | 1.23 | 78% | LOST |
| 2026-08-12 | M25 Muttenz | Clay | D. Sakellaridis | 2 - 1 | 1.28 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-08-09 | Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria) | Clay | G. Piraino | 2 - 0 | 1.58 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-08-08 | Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria) | Clay | R. M. Papoe | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-07 | Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria) | Clay | A. Andreev | 0 - 2 | 1.79 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-08-05 | Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria) | Clay | S. Sorger | 2 - 0 | 1.80 | 53% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Goncalo Marques or Petr Nesterov?
Petr Nesterov is favourite at 1.41, which is a 66% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Goncalo Marques vs Petr Nesterov?
Goncalo Marques is 2.69 and Petr Nesterov is 1.41, the prices we recorded for the Porto match.
What is the head-to-head between Goncalo Marques and Petr Nesterov?
They have met 1 time and Goncalo Marques leads 1-0.
Who will win Goncalo Marques vs Petr Nesterov?
Our model makes it Petr Nesterov to win 2-0 at 2.09 (Lean confidence).