ChallengerHardNingbo · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 03:00

Elias Ymer v Yi Zhou

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

Y. Zhou to win1.28

Price too short today - wait for 1.36 or bigger · our chance 74% · market 27/73, us 26/74

Y. Zhou is 5-5 over the last ten and 18-18 on hard this season. E. Ymer is 3-7 over the last ten and 14-21 on hard this season. Y. Zhou has played 4 matches in seven days.

The pick is Y. Zhou to win. We make it a 74% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.36 or bigger. At 1.28 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

E. Ymer		Y. Zhou
228	Ranking	277
3-7	Last 10	5-5
LLLLW	Last 5	LWWWL
-0.6	V the odds	+1.3
20-26	Season	26-24
14-21	Hard 2026	18-18
0	Last 7 days	4
8d	Days rest	3d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

E. Ymer3.5027%

Y. ZhouFAV1.2873%

Market says73% Zhou

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

E. YmerLLLLW

Y. ZhouLWWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

E. Ymer

Y. Zhou

20-26

14-21

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

26-24

18-18

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Elias Ymer

Sweden

Yi Zhou

China

228

Sweden

20–25

12–18

2–3

6–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

277

China

21–22

13–16

0–2

8–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

E. Ymer — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	J. McCabe		1.63	59%	LOST
Games in each set0-6 7-6 6-7 YmerMcCabePoints won48%52%Serve points won70%73%Return points won27%30%Games held12 of 1515 of 15Break points saved1 of 40 of 0Aces1111Double faults33
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	M. Bellucci		4.21	77%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 1-6 YmerBellucciPoints won41%59%Serve points won46%65%Return points won35%54%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved5 of 105 of 5Aces26Double faults11
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	M. Bellucci		6.93	86%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 5-7 6-7 YmerBellucciPoints won49%51%Serve points won62%66%Return points won34%38%Games held14 of 1714 of 17Break points saved7 of 103 of 6Aces68Double faults42
2026-10-01	Jingshan	Hard	F. Cina		3.70	74%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 4-6 YmerCinaPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%65%Return points won35%42%Games held10 of 1411 of 14Break points saved8 of 114 of 6Aces87Double faults72
2026-09-30	Jingshan	Hard	T. Atmane	RET	4.08	76%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-5 5-5 YmerAtmanePoints won52%48%Serve points won71%67%Return points won33%29%Games held14 of 1614 of 16Break points saved5 of 76 of 8Aces412Double faults02
2026-09-22	Chengdu	Hard	A. Galarneau		—	—	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-7 YmerGalarneauPoints won48%52%Serve points won60%66%Return points won34%40%Games held10 of 1211 of 12Break points saved6 of 86 of 7Aces193Double faults35
2026-09-18	Guangzhou 2	Hard	M. Sharipov		2.73	66%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 YmerSharipovPoints won45%55%Serve points won61%71%Return points won29%39%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved5 of 72 of 3Aces316Double faults23
2026-09-16	Guangzhou 2	Hard	L. Castelnuovo		1.44	64%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 YmerCastelnuovoPoints won54%46%Serve points won75%62%Return points won38%25%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 36 of 8Aces67Double faults14
2026-09-14	Guangzhou 2	Hard	S. Pankin		1.41	68%	WON
Games in each set5-7 7-5 6-3 YmerPankinPoints won52%48%Serve points won68%64%Return points won36%32%Games held15 of 1713 of 16Break points saved6 of 82 of 5Aces129Double faults55
2026-09-08	Shanghai	Hard	P. Kotov		1.92	50%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-7 YmerKotovPoints won49%51%Serve points won63%64%Return points won36%37%Games held12 of 1512 of 15Break points saved10 of 138 of 11Aces73Double faults02

Y. Zhou — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-24	Guangzhou	Hard	C. Wong	2.72	64%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 ZhouWongPoints won43%57%Serve points won67%79%Return points won21%33%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved1 of 20 of 0Aces718Double faults22
2026-10-23	Guangzhou	Hard	A. Ilagan	1.58	61%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 ZhouIlaganPoints won56%44%Serve points won75%60%Return points won40%25%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved1 of 22 of 5Aces99Double faults47
2026-10-21	Guangzhou	Hard	Z. Zhang	1.77	54%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 ZhouZhangPoints won59%41%Serve points won85%64%Return points won36%15%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 05 of 7Aces79Double faults23
2026-10-20	Guangzhou	Hard	K. Matsuda	1.21	79%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-3 ZhouMatsudaPoints won64%36%Serve points won80%48%Return points won52%20%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved2 of 22 of 6Aces73Double faults23
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	H. Hurkacz	6.76	86%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-3 3-6 ZhouHurkaczPoints won46%54%Serve points won64%74%Return points won26%36%Games held10 of 1312 of 13Break points saved6 of 93 of 4Aces318Double faults21
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	L. Musetti	4.67	79%	WON
Games in each set7-6 3-6 7-6 ZhouMusettiPoints won48%52%Serve points won69%76%Return points won24%31%Games held15 of 1617 of 17Break points saved4 of 52 of 2Aces145Double faults03
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	M. Bellucci	3.93	75%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 7-6 ZhouBellucciPoints won50%50%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held14 of 1614 of 15Break points saved9 of 115 of 6Aces126Double faults32
2026-09-28	Beijing	Hard	P. Carreno-Busta	—	—	LOST
Games in each set5-7 3-6 ZhouCarreno-BustaPoints won44%56%Serve points won56%66%Return points won34%44%Games held7 of 1010 of 11Break points saved3 of 64 of 5Aces63Double faults62
2026-09-23	Chengdu	Hard	J. M. Cerundolo	2.81	65%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 ZhouCerundoloPoints won45%55%Serve points won59%70%Return points won30%41%Games held7 of 109 of 9Break points saved3 of 63 of 3Aces57Double faults01
2026-09-11	Shanghai	Hard	I. Ivashka	2.15	55%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 ZhouIvashkaPoints won40%60%Serve points won54%82%Return points won18%46%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved4 of 70 of 0Aces34Double faults41

Common questions

Who is favourite, Elias Ymer or Yi Zhou?

Yi Zhou is favourite at 1.28, which is a 73% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou?

Elias Ymer is 3.50 and Yi Zhou is 1.28, the prices we recorded for the Ningbo match.

Who will win Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou?

Our model makes it Yi Zhou to win at 1.28 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

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