Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Ilia Simakin
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTI. Simakin is 10-0 over the last ten and 42-9 on hard this season. C. Ugo Carabelli is 2-8 over the last ten and 6-13 on hard this season.
The pick is I. Simakin to win. We make it a 70% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.43 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| C. Ugo Carabelli | I. Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Ranking | 154 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 | 10-0 |
| LLLLW | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| - | V the odds | +0.5 |
| 21-25 | Season | 45-17 |
| 6-13 | Hard 2026 | 42-9 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 10d | Days rest | 2d |
| 0 | Wins here | 2 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | C. Ugo CarabellivI. Simakin | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
C. Ugo Carabelli — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | I. Simakin | 2 - 1 | 2.87 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Tokyo | Hard | R. Hijikata | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-24 | Chengdu | Hard | F. Cina | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | J-L. Struff | 0 - 3 | 2.81 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-08-21 | Cancun 2 | Hard | M. Echargui | 0 - 1 RET | 1.37 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Cancun 2 | Hard | N. Mejia | 2 - 0 | 1.88 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | 3.56 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | 4.56 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-07-20 | Estoril | Clay | T. Droguet | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-07-16 | Umag | clay | R. A. Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | 2.21 | 56% | LOST |
I. Simakin — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | 1.47 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Te | 0 - 2 | 1.13 | 85% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | L. Pavlovic | 1 - 2 | 1.46 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | R. Pacheco Mendez | 1 - 2 | 1.69 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | H. Heck | 2 - 1 | 1.19 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-18 | Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | C. Hewitt | 0 - 2 | 1.25 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-09-17 | Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | B. Ellis | 0 - 2 | 1.24 | 75% | WON |
| 2026-09-15 | Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | T. Derepasko | 0 - 2 | 1.11 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-09-13 | Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | A. Weber | 0 - 2 | 1.22 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-12 | Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | M. Purcell | 2 - 1 | 2.23 | 57% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Camilo Ugo Carabelli or Ilia Simakin?
Ilia Simakin is favourite at 1.47, which is a 66% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin?
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 2.87 and Ilia Simakin is 1.47, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Ilia Simakin?
They have met 1 time and Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 1-0.
Who will win Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model makes it Ilia Simakin to win at 1.47 (Lean confidence).