Bernard Tomic v Matteo Arnaldi
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONM. Arnaldi is 3-7 over the last ten and 3-9 on hard this season. B. Tomic is 8-2 over the last ten and 28-18 on hard this season. B. Tomic withdrew from a match in the last month.
The pick is M. Arnaldi to win. We make it a 68% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.48 or bigger. At 1.46 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| B. Tomic | M. Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| 185 | Ranking | 37 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 3-7 |
| WWWWL | Last 5 | LWLLL |
| +1.4 | V the odds | +0.4 |
| 33-24 | Season | 19-17 |
| 28-18 | Hard 2026 | 3-9 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 5d |
| 2 | Wins here | 0 |
| withdrew | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | B. TomicvM. Arnaldi | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
B. Tomic — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 2 | 2.92 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | 1.78 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Atmane | 1 - 1 RET | 3.31 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | Y. Shimizu | 1 - 2 | 1.60 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Jingshan | Hard | F. Sun | 2 - 1 | 1.68 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Hangzhou | Hard | F. Sun | 0 - 2 | 1.46 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-09-22 | Hangzhou | Hard | R. Te | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | P. Kotov | 2 - 0 | 2.16 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-09-18 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | A. Binda | 2 - 0 | 1.14 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-09-17 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | Ja. Delaney | 2 - 0 | 1.25 | 74% | WON |
M. Arnaldi — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Tomic | 0 - 2 | 1.46 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | 10.41 | 91% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | 2.12 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | 1.61 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Landaluce | 2 - 1 | 2.18 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-08-07 | Montreal | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | 2.84 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | F. Marozsan | 1 - 2 | 2.30 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-07-27 | Washington | Hard | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 RET | 2.44 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-07-16 | Umag | clay | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | 1.48 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-07-15 | Umag | clay | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Bernard Tomic or Matteo Arnaldi?
Matteo Arnaldi is favourite at 1.46, which is a 67% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Bernard Tomic is 2.92 and Matteo Arnaldi is 1.46, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Bernard Tomic and Matteo Arnaldi?
They have met 1 time and Matteo Arnaldi leads 1-0.
Who will win Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model makes it Matteo Arnaldi to win at 1.46 (Lean confidence).