Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Felix Auger-Aliassime
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONF. Auger-Aliassime is 6-4 over the last ten and 18-9 on hard this season. C. Ugo Carabelli is 2-8 over the last ten and 7-13 on hard this season. The head to head is C. Ugo Carabelli 0-1.
The pick is F. Auger-Aliassime to win. We make it a 89% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.13 or bigger. At 1.08 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| C. Ugo Carabelli | F. Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Ranking | 5 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WLLLL | Last 5 | LWWLW |
| -1.4 | V the odds | -0.7 |
| 22-25 | Season | 38-17 |
| 7-13 | Hard 2026 | 18-9 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 2d | Days rest | 10d |
| 1 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Recent form
Last five completed matches, most recent first.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | C. Ugo CarabellivF. Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 2 |
| 2022-05-25 | French Open | F. Auger-AliassimevC. Ugo Carabelli | 3 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
C. Ugo Carabelli — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 2 | 9.04 | 89% | LOST |
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | I. Simakin | 2 - 1 | 2.87 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Tokyo | Hard | R. Hijikata | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-24 | Chengdu | Hard | F. Cina | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | J-L. Struff | 0 - 3 | 2.81 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-08-21 | Cancun 2 | Hard | M. Echargui | 0 - 1 RET | 1.37 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Cancun 2 | Hard | N. Mejia | 2 - 0 | 1.88 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | 3.56 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | 4.56 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-07-20 | Estoril | Clay | T. Droguet | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 55% | LOST |
F. Auger-Aliassime — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | 1.08 | 89% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | K. Khachanov | 2 - 0 | 1.65 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | 1.23 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | 1.32 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | K. Khachanov | 1 - 3 | 1.38 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | R. Hijikata | 3 - 1 | 1.10 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | 1.48 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | 1.21 | 81% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | 1.75 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-07-07 | Wimbledon | Grass | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | 2.38 | 59% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Camilo Ugo Carabelli or Felix Auger-Aliassime?
Felix Auger-Aliassime is favourite at 1.08, which is a 89% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger-Aliassime?
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 9.04 and Felix Auger-Aliassime is 1.08, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Felix Auger-Aliassime?
They have met 2 times and Felix Auger-Aliassime leads 2-0.
Who will win Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger-Aliassime?
Our model makes it Felix Auger-Aliassime to win at 1.08 (Lean confidence).