Alex Michelsen v Carlos Alcaraz
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanC. Alcaraz is 9-1 over the last ten and 33-4 on hard this season. A. Michelsen is 5-5 over the last ten and 31-16 on hard this season. C. Alcaraz has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is A. Michelsen 0-1.
The pick is C. Alcaraz to win. We make it a 82% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.22 or bigger. At 1.19 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Michelsen | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Ranking | 3 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 9-1 |
| WLWLW | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| -0.3 | V the odds | +0.8 |
| 39-24 | Season | 39-5 |
| 31-16 | Hard 2026 | 33-4 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 2d | Days rest | 3d |
| 1 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | C. AlcarazvA. Michelsen | 7-6 4-6 6-1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Michelsen — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | J. Lehecka | 2.35 | 59% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-2 6-4 MichelsenLeheckaPoints won54%46%Serve points won72%61%Return points won39%28%Games held14 of 1511 of 15Break points saved6 of 711 of 15Aces510Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | A. Fils | 2.79 | 65% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-7 MichelsenFilsPoints won50%50%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held13 of 1514 of 16Break points saved5 of 76 of 8Aces47Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1.60 | 61% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-3 MichelsenZandschulpPoints won53%47%Serve points won62%57%Return points won43%38%Games held12 of 1510 of 15Break points saved4 of 77 of 12Aces48Double faults29 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Brussels | Hard (Indoor) | A. Fils | 2.69 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-7 MichelsenFilsPoints won47%53%Serve points won60%67%Return points won33%40%Games held8 of 119 of 11Break points saved1 of 42 of 4Aces26Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-22 | Brussels | Hard (Indoor) | D. Goffin | 1.07 | 90% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MichelsenGoffinPoints won55%45%Serve points won66%57%Return points won43%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved3 of 42 of 5Aces85Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Brussels | Hard (Indoor) | A. Guerrieri | 1.24 | 78% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-2 MichelsenGuerrieriPoints won62%38%Serve points won69%46%Return points won54%31%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved0 of 02 of 6Aces30Double faults15 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1.52 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 4-6 MichelsenZandschulpPoints won46%54%Serve points won63%70%Return points won30%37%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 35 of 5Aces53Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 5.79 | 83% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 6-4 1-6 MichelsenAlcarazPoints won46%54%Serve points won53%60%Return points won40%47%Games held8 of 1410 of 15Break points saved7 of 138 of 13Aces05Double faults45 | |||||||
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2.36 | 59% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-5 6-3 5-7 3-6 6-7 MichelsenTiafoePoints won50%50%Serve points won62%60%Return points won40%38%Games held19 of 2719 of 27Break points saved9 of 1715 of 23Aces2110Double faults94 | |||||||
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | T. M. Etcheverry | 1.37 | 71% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 6-4 MichelsenEtcheverryPoints won52%48%Serve points won71%66%Return points won34%29%Games held15 of 1613 of 16Break points saved4 of 51 of 4Aces126Double faults70 | |||||||
C. Alcaraz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. De Minaur | 1.22 | 80% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-4 AlcarazMinaurPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%53%Return points won47%29%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved1 of 14 of 8Aces51Double faults13 | |||||||
| 2026-10-31 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | D. Medvedev | 1.42 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazMedvedevPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%57%Return points won43%35%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved2 of 41 of 4Aces76Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | T. Paul | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazPaulPoints won52%48%Serve points won68%69%Return points won31%32%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved5 of 53 of 4Aces53Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | N. Basilashvili | 1.10 | 88% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 7-6 AlcarazBasilashviliPoints won54%46%Serve points won66%58%Return points won42%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved0 of 14 of 7Aces94Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | K. Khachanov | 1.23 | 79% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazKhachanovPoints won54%46%Serve points won66%54%Return points won46%34%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved0 of 26 of 9Aces34Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Bergs | 1.07 | 91% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 6-7 AlcarazBergsPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%68%Return points won32%38%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved1 of 40 of 2Aces59Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 1.07 | 90% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-3 AlcarazCerundoloPoints won58%42%Serve points won80%61%Return points won39%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 04 of 7Aces82Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-06 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Lehecka | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 AlcarazLeheckaPoints won53%47%Serve points won79%68%Return points won32%21%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 32 of 4Aces47Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-05 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Munar | 1.12 | 86% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-1 AlcarazMunarPoints won54%46%Serve points won61%53%Return points won47%39%Games held11 of 148 of 14Break points saved2 of 54 of 10Aces32Double faults44 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Shapovalov | RET | 1.13 | 85% | WON |
Games in each set7-6 2-1 AlcarazShapovalovPoints won55%45%Serve points won57%48%Return points won52%43%Games held5 of 84 of 7Break points saved1 of 44 of 7Aces01Double faults13 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alex Michelsen or Carlos Alcaraz?
Carlos Alcaraz is favourite at 1.19, which is a 81% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Alex Michelsen is 5.19 and Carlos Alcaraz is 1.19, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
What is the head-to-head between Alex Michelsen and Carlos Alcaraz?
They have met 1 time and Carlos Alcaraz leads 1-0.
Who will win Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Our model makes it Carlos Alcaraz to win at 1.19 (Lean confidence).