Does Kalshi resolve a tennis retirement at 50-50?
Not on the set-score contract. It resolves to the last fair price at the Exchange's sole discretion, so what you get back depends on where the market was trading when play stopped.
Prediction markets · settlement rules
Kalshi tennis retirement and disqualification rules
On the set-score contract, retirement, withdrawal and walkover all resolve to the last fair price at the exchange's discretion - not 50-50, and not to the advancing player.
| Retirement | Disqualification | Walkover |
|---|---|---|
| last fair price | completed sets still count | last fair price |
The rule, in their words
“If <player> retires due to injury or other circumstance during the match, all markets affected by the retirement of <player> will resolve to the last fair price as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange.”
Read and verified on Kalshi’s own published rules, 2026-10-05. Operators change these without notice, so we re-read them each time this page is updated.
Other markets
Disqualification is handled differently from retirement: completed sets still count toward the set score. A games-count contract filed with the CFTC uses a third regime again, counting "the games completed together with the minimum number of further games that would have been required" to finish.
Worth knowing
Verified for the SET SCORE contract only. The match-winner contract terms are rendered in the page rather than published as a document, so that rule is not verified here and may differ.
Common questions
Are Kalshi's tennis rules the same across every contract?
No. The set-score, games-count and match-winner contracts each handle an unfinished match differently. Read the terms of the contract you are trading.