ChallengerHardSeoul · 1/8-finals2026-10-29 02:00

Zhizhen Zhang v Rei Sakamoto

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

R. Sakamoto to win1.46

Worth backing at 1.38 or bigger · our chance 73% · market 34/66, us 27/73

R. Sakamoto is 7-3 over the last ten and 34-19 on hard this season. Z. Zhang is 3-7 over the last ten and 10-17 on hard this season. The head to head is Z. Zhang 1-0.

The pick is R. Sakamoto to win. We make it a 73% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.38 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

Z. Zhang		R. Sakamoto
170	Ranking	137
3-7	Last 10	7-3
WLWLL	Last 5	WLWWL
-1.6	V the odds	+1.2
23-27	Season	42-24
10-17	Hard 2026	34-19
1	Last 7 days	1
2d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 1-0

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

Z. Zhang2.8834%

R. SakamotoFAV1.4666%

Market says66% Sakamoto

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Z. ZhangWLWLL

R. SakamotoWLWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

Z. Zhang1

R. Sakamoto0

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-02-14	Brisbane 2	Z. ZhangvR. Sakamoto	6-1 6-4

This season & this event

Z. Zhang

R. Sakamoto

23-27

10-17

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

42-24

34-19

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Zhizhen Zhang

China

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

170

China

21–24

8–13

3–7

9–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

137

Japan

41–24

29–16

9–6

2–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

Z. Zhang — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Seoul	Hard	M. Cilic	2.57	62%	WON
Games in each set7-6 2-6 6-3 ZhangCilicPoints won50%50%Serve points won69%69%Return points won31%31%Games held13 of 1513 of 14Break points saved1 of 34 of 5Aces2113Double faults65
2026-10-21	Guangzhou	Hard	Y. Zhou	2.07	54%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 ZhangZhouPoints won41%59%Serve points won64%85%Return points won15%36%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved5 of 70 of 0Aces97Double faults32
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	K. Uchida	1.09	87%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 ZhangUchidaPoints won56%44%Serve points won79%63%Return points won37%21%Games held10 of 109 of 11Break points saved0 of 04 of 6Aces117Double faults21
2026-10-14	W15 Shenzhen	Hard	X. Lan	—	—	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-0 3-6
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	T. Machac	3.00	68%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 6-7 2-6 ZhangMachacPoints won49%51%Serve points won57%61%Return points won39%43%Games held10 of 149 of 13Break points saved7 of 118 of 12Aces105Double faults11
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	A. Gea	3.90	75%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 ZhangGeaPoints won43%57%Serve points won52%65%Return points won35%48%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved1 of 52 of 4Aces16Double faults24
2026-09-23	Hangzhou	Hard	C. Wong	2.44	60%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 ZhangWongPoints won41%59%Serve points won53%71%Return points won29%47%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved1 of 51 of 2Aces110Double faults12
2026-07-29	Vancouver	Hard	J.J. Wolf	1.95	50%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-3 4-6 ZhangWolfPoints won48%52%Serve points won63%69%Return points won31%37%Games held14 of 1613 of 15Break points saved0 of 23 of 5Aces1214Double faults81
2026-07-22	Winnipeg	Hard	C. Broom	1.39	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 6-7 2-6 ZhangBroomPoints won51%49%Serve points won57%57%Return points won43%43%Games held10 of 1410 of 14Break points saved14 of 1811 of 15Aces115Double faults27
2026-07-21	Winnipeg	Hard	T. Zink	1.38	70%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 ZhangZinkPoints won55%45%Serve points won79%70%Return points won30%21%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved2 of 24 of 5Aces74Double faults20

R. Sakamoto — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Seoul	Hard	K. Samrej	1.12	86%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 SakamotoSamrejPoints won61%39%Serve points won80%60%Return points won40%20%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved2 of 23 of 5Aces81Double faults13
2026-10-20	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	K. Khachanov	3.23	70%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 SakamotoKhachanovPoints won39%61%Serve points won54%88%Return points won12%46%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved7 of 100 of 0Aces59Double faults30
2026-10-18	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	G. Diallo	1.88	51%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-4 SakamotoDialloPoints won48%52%Serve points won65%72%Return points won28%35%Games held12 of 1412 of 14Break points saved5 of 77 of 9Aces1318Double faults30
2026-10-17	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	A. Omarkhanov	1.07	90%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 SakamotoOmarkhanovPoints won65%35%Serve points won78%44%Return points won56%22%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved2 of 24 of 9Aces15Double faults04
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	A. De Minaur	3.13	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 SakamotoMinaurPoints won45%55%Serve points won67%80%Return points won20%33%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved0 of 12 of 2Aces1311Double faults02
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	A. Rublev	3.30	71%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 SakamotoRublevPoints won53%47%Serve points won71%67%Return points won33%29%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved2 of 21 of 3Aces89Double faults12
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	M. Trungelliti	1.47	66%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-5 SakamotoTrungellitiPoints won56%44%Serve points won75%56%Return points won44%25%Games held9 of 107 of 11Break points saved0 of 17 of 11Aces96Double faults25
2026-10-06	Shanghai	Hard	K. Jacquet	2.24	57%	WON
Games in each set7-6 4-6 7-6 SakamotoJacquetPoints won49%51%Serve points won68%73%Return points won27%32%Games held15 of 1716 of 17Break points saved7 of 95 of 6Aces138Double faults40
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	S. C. Hong	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-5 SakamotoHongPoints won58%42%Serve points won73%58%Return points won42%27%Games held10 of 117 of 10Break points saved1 of 22 of 5Aces51Double faults12
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	M. Arnaldi	1.78	54%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 SakamotoArnaldiPoints won51%49%Serve points won66%65%Return points won35%34%Games held12 of 1412 of 14Break points saved1 of 32 of 4Aces84Double faults14

Common questions

Who is favourite, Zhizhen Zhang or Rei Sakamoto?

Rei Sakamoto is favourite at 1.46, which is a 66% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Zhizhen Zhang vs Rei Sakamoto?

Zhizhen Zhang is 2.88 and Rei Sakamoto is 1.46, the prices we recorded for the Seoul match.

What is the head-to-head between Zhizhen Zhang and Rei Sakamoto?

They have met 1 time and Zhizhen Zhang leads 1-0.

Who will win Zhizhen Zhang vs Rei Sakamoto?

Our model makes it Rei Sakamoto to win at 1.46 (Solid confidence).

Also at this event

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