ChallengerHardSeoul2026-10-29 02:00

Sho Shimabukuro v Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

J. D. Hara Friend to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.37 or bigger · our chance 73% · market 55/45, us 52/48

J. D. Hara Friend is 7-3 over the last ten and 31-17 on hard this season. S. Shimabukuro is 4-6 over the last ten and 23-24 on hard this season. J. D. Hara Friend took a medical timeout on 2026-10-20.

The pick is J. D. Hara Friend to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 73% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.37 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

S. Shimabukuro		J. D. Hara Friend
109	Ranking	272
4-6	Last 10	7-3
WLWLL	Last 5	WLWWL
+0.1	V the odds	+0.9
32-29	Season	35-18
23-24	Hard 2026	31-17
1	Last 7 days	2
2d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	1
Defending title	Fitness	MTO
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

S. ShimabukuroFAV1.6755%

J. D. Hara Friend2.0545%

Market says55% Shimabukuro

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

S. ShimabukuroWLWLL

J. D. Hara FriendWLWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

S. Shimabukuro

Defending title

J. D. Hara Friend

32-29

23-24

Champion

Lost R16 to J. Rodionov

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

35-18

31-17

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

109

Japan

30–28

21–22

0–2

7–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

272

Japan

32–17

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

S. Shimabukuro — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Seoul	Hard	J. Kumstat	1.72	56%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-0 ShimabukuroKumstatPoints won57%43%Serve points won67%53%Return points won47%33%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved0 of 04 of 8Aces45Double faults14
2026-10-21	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	D. Medvedev	10.81	91%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 1-6 ShimabukuroMedvedevPoints won34%66%Serve points won46%79%Return points won21%54%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved5 of 103 of 3Aces17Double faults41
2026-10-20	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	R. Safiullin	6.14	84%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-4 ShimabukuroSafiullinPoints won50%50%Serve points won67%68%Return points won32%33%Games held15 of 1613 of 16Break points saved3 of 43 of 6Aces918Double faults15
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	M. Kecmanovic	3.02	68%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 ShimabukuroKecmanovicPoints won44%56%Serve points won56%71%Return points won29%44%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved6 of 91 of 1Aces64Double faults00
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	D. Shapovalov	3.42	72%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 1-6 ShimabukuroShapovalovPoints won39%61%Serve points won50%72%Return points won28%50%Games held5 of 99 of 10Break points saved3 of 75 of 6Aces111Double faults62
2026-09-23	Hangzhou	Hard	H. Gaston	2.24	57%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 ShimabukuroGastonPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%68%Return points won32%38%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved3 of 64 of 5Aces43Double faults31
2026-09-20	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	A. Shepp	1.33	73%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 ShimabukuroSheppPoints won55%45%Serve points won68%57%Return points won43%32%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved0 of 14 of 8Aces35Double faults23
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	J. Watt	1.24	76%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 ShimabukuroWattPoints won52%48%Serve points won75%71%Return points won29%25%Games held13 of 1412 of 14Break points saved4 of 55 of 7Aces621Double faults32
2026-08-30	US Open	Hard	A. Rinderknech	3.90	75%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 2-6 6-7 2-6 ShimabukuroRinderknechPoints won44%56%Serve points won61%76%Return points won24%39%Games held15 of 2019 of 20Break points saved7 of 121 of 2Aces1115Double faults93
2026-08-23	Winston-Salem	Hard	M. Kecmanovic	2.98	67%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 ShimabukuroKecmanovicPoints won44%56%Serve points won51%65%Return points won35%49%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved3 of 70 of 2Aces33Double faults46

J. D. Hara Friend — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Seoul	Hard	A. Holmgren	1.71	57%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 FriendHolmgrenPoints won57%43%Serve points won72%58%Return points won42%28%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved1 of 10 of 3Aces45Double faults23
2026-10-23	Guangzhou	Hard	C. Wong	2.74	65%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 FriendWongPoints won46%54%Serve points won62%68%Return points won32%38%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved2 of 51 of 2Aces49Double faults53
2026-10-21	Guangzhou	Hard	J. McCabe	1.48	64%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-4 FriendMcCabePoints won52%48%Serve points won68%64%Return points won36%32%Games held13 of 1613 of 16Break points saved2 of 54 of 7Aces103Double faults25
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	O. Milic	1.26	76%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-7 7-6 FriendMilicPoints won53%47%Serve points won76%62%Return points won38%24%Games held15 of 1714 of 17Break points saved0 of 28 of 11Aces1817Double faults64
2026-10-15	Jinan	Hard	A. Shevchenko	2.02	52%	LOST
Games in each set0-6 4-6 FriendShevchenkoPoints won41%59%Serve points won51%69%Return points won31%49%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved3 of 73 of 3Aces21Double faults40
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	A. Kachmazov	1.73	56%	WON
Games in each set6-7 7-5 6-3 FriendKachmazovPoints won50%50%Serve points won63%64%Return points won36%37%Games held15 of 1712 of 16Break points saved6 of 87 of 11Aces813Double faults54
2026-10-11	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	A. Kachmazov	1.66	58%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-7 FriendKachmazovPoints won51%49%Serve points won71%69%Return points won31%29%Games held16 of 1715 of 17Break points saved1 of 24 of 6Aces147Double faults43
2026-10-10	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	K. Saitoh	1.21	80%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 FriendSaitohPoints won60%40%Serve points won69%48%Return points won52%31%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved1 of 15 of 10Aces60Double faults23
2026-10-09	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	R. Seggerman	1.53	63%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 FriendSeggermanPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%65%Return points won35%24%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved2 of 22 of 4Aces616Double faults16
2026-10-07	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	W. K. Leong M.	1.35	71%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 FriendM.Points won55%45%Serve points won66%61%Return points won39%34%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved4 of 42 of 5Aces21Double faults21

Common questions

Who is favourite, Sho Shimabukuro or Jay Dylan Hara Friend?

Sho Shimabukuro is favourite at 1.67, which is a 55% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Sho Shimabukuro vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend?

Sho Shimabukuro is 1.67 and Jay Dylan Hara Friend is 2.05, the prices we recorded for the Seoul match.

Who will win Sho Shimabukuro vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend?

Our model makes it Jay Dylan Hara Friend to win a set (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Zhang v Sakamoto Chung v Bu Harris v Vukic Harris v Jasika Atmane v Daniel Kachmazov v Hong