ATPHard (Indoor)Basel · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 10:00

Valentin Vacherot v Mariano Navone

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

V. Vacherot to win1.53

Price too short today - wait for 1.56 or bigger · our chance 64% · market 63/37, us 64/36

V. Vacherot is 6-4 over the last ten and 14-15 on hard this season. M. Navone is 4-6 over the last ten and 14-15 on hard this season. The head to head is V. Vacherot 1-1.

The pick is V. Vacherot to win. We make it a 64% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.56 or bigger. At 1.53 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

V. Vacherot		M. Navone
14	Ranking	47
6-4	Last 10	4-6
LLWLW	Last 5	LWLLL
+0.9	V the odds	-0.3
24-18	Season	29-25
14-15	Hard 2026	14-15
1	Last 7 days	1
5d	Days rest	6d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 1-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

V. VacherotFAV1.5264%

M. Navone2.6536%

Market says64% Vacherot

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

V. VacherotLLWLW

M. NavoneLWLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

V. Vacherot1

M. Navone1

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-08-05	Montreal	V. VacherotvM. Navone	6-1 3-6 3-6
2026-03-21	Miami	M. NavonevV. Vacherot	3-6 4-6

This season & this event

V. Vacherot

M. Navone

24-18

14-15

Lost R32 to T. Fritz

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

29-25

14-15

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

Mariano Navone

Argentina

Monaco

24–16

14–12

6–4

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Argentina

28–24

11–11

17–11

0–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

V. Vacherot — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-22	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	L. van Assche	1.77	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 VacherotAsschePoints won50%50%Serve points won64%65%Return points won35%36%Games held11 of 1411 of 14Break points saved4 of 71 of 4Aces108Double faults25
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	T. Paul	2.47	61%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 VacherotPaulPoints won44%56%Serve points won53%65%Return points won35%47%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved2 of 66 of 7Aces94Double faults10
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	S. Baez	1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 VacherotBaezPoints won55%45%Serve points won77%66%Return points won34%23%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 31 of 3Aces155Double faults10
2026-10-05	Tokyo	Hard	J. Lehecka	2.59	62%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 VacherotLeheckaPoints won39%61%Serve points won60%90%Return points won10%40%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved3 of 60 of 0Aces410Double faults30
2026-10-04	Tokyo	Hard	A. Fils	4.32	78%	WON
Games in each set7-5 4-6 6-4 VacherotFilsPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%59%Return points won41%38%Games held13 of 1612 of 16Break points saved5 of 85 of 9Aces146Double faults48
2026-10-02	Tokyo	Hard	S. Tsitsipas	2.37	59%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-4 VacherotTsitsipasPoints won49%51%Serve points won70%70%Return points won30%30%Games held14 of 1614 of 16Break points saved6 of 83 of 5Aces79Double faults10
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	A. Blockx	2.17	55%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 VacherotBlockxPoints won54%46%Serve points won71%62%Return points won38%29%Games held10 of 1210 of 12Break points saved7 of 96 of 8Aces72Double faults52
2026-09-26	Chengdu	Hard	L. Harris	1.88	52%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 VacherotHarrisPoints won45%55%Serve points won70%84%Return points won16%30%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved1 of 20 of 0Aces416Double faults22
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	O. Virtanen	1.65	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 4-6 6-4 VacherotVirtanenPoints won51%49%Serve points won66%62%Return points won38%34%Games held13 of 1613 of 16Break points saved10 of 1310 of 13Aces1414Double faults55
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	E. Vasa	1.02	89%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 VacherotVasaPoints won56%44%Serve points won83%72%Return points won28%17%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved2 of 22 of 3Aces156Double faults22

M. Navone — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	T. Griekspoor	2.42	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 NavoneGriekspoorPoints won49%51%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved0 of 34 of 6Aces614Double faults22
2026-10-19	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	J. M. Cerundolo	1.60	61%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 NavoneCerundoloPoints won53%47%Serve points won63%59%Return points won41%37%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved2 of 32 of 5Aces32Double faults12
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	P. Carreno-Busta	1.76	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 5-7 3-6 NavoneCarreno-BustaPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held12 of 1514 of 16Break points saved7 of 1012 of 14Aces66Double faults21
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	A. De Minaur	4.25	77%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 NavoneMinaurPoints won43%57%Serve points won55%68%Return points won32%45%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved4 of 79 of 10Aces16Double faults02
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	T. M. Etcheverry	2.18	55%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 3-6 NavoneEtcheverryPoints won45%55%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held10 of 1414 of 15Break points saved4 of 80 of 1Aces48Double faults11
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	M. Berrettini	2.57	62%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 7-6 NavoneBerrettiniPoints won52%48%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held18 of 2017 of 20Break points saved7 of 94 of 7Aces515Double faults46
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	N. Djokovic	5.59	83%	WON
Games in each set7-6 5-7 4-6 6-2 6-1 NavoneDjokovicPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%61%Return points won39%33%Games held21 of 2518 of 24Break points saved8 of 1211 of 17Aces910Double faults810
2026-08-25	Winston-Salem	Hard	J. Duckworth	1.64	59%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 NavoneDuckworthPoints won46%54%Serve points won58%63%Return points won37%42%Games held7 of 109 of 11Break points saved3 of 66 of 8Aces14Double faults46
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	A. Blockx	2.24	57%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 NavoneBlockxPoints won46%54%Serve points won64%72%Return points won28%36%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved4 of 62 of 2Aces011Double faults22
2026-08-13	Cincinnati	Hard	R. Collignon	2.19	56%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 NavoneCollignonPoints won56%44%Serve points won75%58%Return points won42%25%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved2 of 311 of 13Aces17Double faults08

Common questions

Who is favourite, Valentin Vacherot or Mariano Navone?

Valentin Vacherot is favourite at 1.52, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone?

Valentin Vacherot is 1.52 and Mariano Navone is 2.65, the prices we recorded for the Basel match.

What is the head-to-head between Valentin Vacherot and Mariano Navone?

They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.

Who will win Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone?

Our model makes it Valentin Vacherot to win at 1.53 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Fokina v Bergs Djokovic v Humbert Fritz v Tsitsipas Hurkacz v Fils Kym v Rinderknech Michelsen v Zandschulp