ATPHard (Indoor)Basel · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 10:00

Novak Djokovic v Ugo Humbert

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

N. Djokovic to win1.40

Worth backing at 1.34 or bigger · our chance 75% · market 69/31, us 75/25

N. Djokovic is 6-4 over the last ten and 11-5 on hard this season. U. Humbert is 2-8 over the last ten and 13-18 on hard this season.

The pick is N. Djokovic to win. We make it a 75% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.34 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

N. Djokovic		U. Humbert
11	Ranking	32
6-4	Last 10	2-8
LWWWW	Last 5	LLLWL
-0.1	V the odds	-3.6
19-8	Season	26-26
11-5	Hard 2026	13-18
0	Last 7 days	0
17d	Days rest	8d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Defending semi
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

N. DjokovicFAV1.4069%

U. Humbert3.1231%

Market says69% Djokovic

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

N. DjokovicLWWWW

U. HumbertLLLWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

N. Djokovic

U. Humbert

Defending semi

19-8

11-5

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

26-26

13-18

Lost SF to A. Davidovich Fokina

Lost R16 to D. Goffin

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Novak Djokovic

Serbia

Ugo Humbert

France

Serbia

17–7

10–4

2–2

5–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

France

26–23

13–14

5–5

8–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

N. Djokovic — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	H. Hurkacz		1.53	63%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 DjokovicHurkaczPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%73%Return points won27%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 52 of 2Aces213Double faults12
2026-10-06	Beijing	Hard	A. De Minaur	RET	1.59	61%	WON
Games in each set7-6 0-1 DjokovicMinaurPoints won53%47%Serve points won82%68%Return points won32%18%Games held6 of 67 of 7Break points saved1 of 12 of 2Aces04Double faults02
2026-10-04	Beijing	Hard	A. Zverev		3.36	71%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-4 DjokovicZverevPoints won53%47%Serve points won73%68%Return points won32%27%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved3 of 43 of 5Aces419Double faults30
2026-10-02	Beijing	Hard	Y. Bu		1.30	75%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-2 DjokovicBuPoints won54%46%Serve points won71%62%Return points won38%29%Games held13 of 1512 of 15Break points saved6 of 84 of 7Aces1510Double faults01
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	N. Borges		1.40	68%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 DjokovicBorgesPoints won56%44%Serve points won75%65%Return points won35%25%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved2 of 21 of 2Aces83Double faults22
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	M. Navone		1.18	83%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 7-5 6-4 2-6 1-6 DjokovicNavonePoints won47%53%Serve points won61%67%Return points won33%39%Games held18 of 2421 of 25Break points saved11 of 178 of 12Aces109Double faults108
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	T. A. Tirante		1.28	76%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 DjokovicTirantePoints won48%52%Serve points won62%70%Return points won30%38%Games held12 of 1412 of 14Break points saved13 of 154 of 6Aces513Double faults75
2026-07-10	Wimbledon	Grass	J. Sinner		5.15	81%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 4-6 DjokovicSinnerPoints won44%56%Serve points won61%78%Return points won22%39%Games held12 of 1515 of 15Break points saved10 of 131 of 1Aces816Double faults30
2026-07-07	Wimbledon	Grass	F. Auger-Aliassime		1.66	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 3-6 6-3 6-7 7-6 DjokovicAuger-AliassimePoints won51%49%Serve points won71%67%Return points won33%29%Games held25 of 2725 of 27Break points saved2 of 411 of 13Aces1429Double faults65
2026-07-05	Wimbledon	Grass	R. Safiullin		1.18	83%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 DjokovicSafiullinPoints won52%48%Serve points won65%62%Return points won38%35%Games held16 of 2014 of 19Break points saved10 of 144 of 9Aces108Double faults33

U. Humbert — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	C. Moutet	1.36	71%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 7-6 6-7 HumbertMoutetPoints won49%51%Serve points won63%61%Return points won39%37%Games held12 of 1614 of 16Break points saved6 of 1010 of 12Aces121Double faults22
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	A. Gea	2.04	52%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 1-6 HumbertGeaPoints won46%54%Serve points won62%69%Return points won31%38%Games held9 of 1311 of 13Break points saved2 of 63 of 5Aces58Double faults34
2026-10-03	Tokyo	Hard	J. Lehecka	2.53	61%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 4-6 4-6 HumbertLeheckaPoints won47%53%Serve points won69%79%Return points won21%31%Games held14 of 1615 of 16Break points saved7 of 91 of 2Aces415Double faults23
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	B. Nakashima	2.83	66%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 HumbertNakashimaPoints won64%36%Serve points won88%52%Return points won48%12%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved0 of 09 of 12Aces61Double faults12
2026-08-16	Cincinnati	Hard	M. Zheng	1.90	51%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 HumbertZhengPoints won45%55%Serve points won55%67%Return points won33%45%Games held7 of 109 of 9Break points saved4 of 71 of 1Aces34Double faults83
2026-08-06	Montreal	Hard	D. Merida Aguilar	1.43	68%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 HumbertAguilarPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%65%Return points won35%46%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved9 of 131 of 2Aces44Double faults74
2026-07-31	Washington	Hard	B. Shelton	2.99	67%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 3-6 4-6 HumbertSheltonPoints won47%53%Serve points won65%71%Return points won29%35%Games held12 of 1515 of 16Break points saved5 of 85 of 6Aces78Double faults54
2026-07-28	Washington	Hard	A. Martin	1.23	79%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-5 HumbertMartinPoints won57%43%Serve points won66%54%Return points won46%34%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved3 of 40 of 4Aces34Double faults55
2026-06-30	Wimbledon	Grass	Z. Bergs	1.48	66%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 5-7 6-4 6-3 3-6 HumbertBergsPoints won47%53%Serve points won59%62%Return points won38%41%Games held17 of 2419 of 24Break points saved6 of 1310 of 15Aces713Double faults87
2026-06-28	Eastbourne	Grass	Z. Bergs	1.39	70%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 1-6 4-6 HumbertBergsPoints won46%54%Serve points won56%65%Return points won35%44%Games held9 of 1311 of 13Break points saved6 of 103 of 5Aces40Double faults25

Common questions

Who is favourite, Novak Djokovic or Ugo Humbert?

Novak Djokovic is favourite at 1.40, which is a 69% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Novak Djokovic vs Ugo Humbert?

Novak Djokovic is 1.40 and Ugo Humbert is 3.12, the prices we recorded for the Basel match.

Who will win Novak Djokovic vs Ugo Humbert?

Our model makes it Novak Djokovic to win at 1.40 (Solid confidence).

Also at this event

Fokina v Bergs Fritz v Tsitsipas Hurkacz v Fils Kym v Rinderknech Michelsen v Zandschulp Rune v Halys