ATPHard (Indoor)Almaty · Quarter-finals2026-10-23 08:00

Stefanos Tsitsipas v James Duckworth

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

S. Tsitsipas to win 2-01.83

Price too short today - wait for 1.99 or bigger · our chance 50% · market 76/24, us 80/20

S. Tsitsipas is 8-2 over the last ten and 27-16 on hard this season. J. Duckworth is 4-6 over the last ten and 20-18 on hard this season. J. Duckworth took a medical timeout on 2026-10-14.

The pick is S. Tsitsipas to win 2-0. We make it a 50% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.99 or bigger. At 1.83 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

S. Tsitsipas		J. Duckworth
39	Ranking	64
8-2	Last 10	4-6
WWLWW	Last 5	WWLLL
+1.0	V the odds	-0.3
42-23	Season	28-27
27-16	Hard 2026	20-18
2	Last 7 days	2
2d	Days rest	2d
2	Wins here	2
Clear	Fitness	MTODefending semi
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

S. TsitsipasFAV1.2576%

J. Duckworth4.0024%

Market says76% Tsitsipas

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

S. TsitsipasWWLWW

J. DuckworthWWLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

S. Tsitsipas

J. Duckworth

Defending semi

42-23

27-16

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

28-27

20-18

Lost SF to D. Medvedev

Lost R32 to A. Vukic

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

James Duckworth

Australia

Greece

37–22

22–14

10–6

1–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Australia

26–26

13–16

11–4

2–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

S. Tsitsipas — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	M. Kukushkin	1.05	92%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-2 TsitsipasKukushkinPoints won68%32%Serve points won82%44%Return points won56%18%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved0 of 04 of 8Aces80Double faults00
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	A. Kovacevic	1.25	78%	WON
Games in each set7-6 3-6 6-3 TsitsipasKovacevicPoints won52%48%Serve points won74%68%Return points won32%26%Games held14 of 1514 of 15Break points saved0 of 13 of 4Aces713Double faults23
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	D. Medvedev	2.99	67%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 TsitsipasMedvedevPoints won46%54%Serve points won63%73%Return points won27%37%Games held9 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 70 of 0Aces48Double faults11
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	T. Fritz	2.40	59%	WON
Games in each set3-6 7-5 6-3 TsitsipasFritzPoints won50%50%Serve points won67%71%Return points won29%33%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved8 of 96 of 8Aces1523Double faults24
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	L. Darderi	1.42	68%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 TsitsipasDarderiPoints won56%44%Serve points won77%66%Return points won34%23%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved3 of 33 of 5Aces164Double faults20
2026-10-08	Shanghai	Hard	K. Coppejans	1.08	90%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-5 TsitsipasCoppejansPoints won58%42%Serve points won81%66%Return points won34%19%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved0 of 01 of 3Aces52Double faults12
2026-10-02	Tokyo	Hard	V. Vacherot	1.65	59%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 4-6 TsitsipasVacherotPoints won51%49%Serve points won70%70%Return points won30%30%Games held14 of 1614 of 16Break points saved3 of 56 of 8Aces97Double faults01
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	T. M. Etcheverry	1.34	72%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 6-4 TsitsipasEtcheverryPoints won55%45%Serve points won81%68%Return points won32%19%Games held14 of 1512 of 14Break points saved0 of 14 of 6Aces95Double faults01
2026-09-29	Tokyo	Hard	R. Hijikata	1.35	71%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 TsitsipasHijikataPoints won59%41%Serve points won82%65%Return points won35%18%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 00 of 2Aces64Double faults00
2026-09-28	Tokyo	Hard	Y. Nishioka	—	—	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 TsitsipasNishiokaPoints won59%41%Serve points won72%51%Return points won49%28%Games held8 of 105 of 10Break points saved0 of 27 of 12Aces92Double faults03

J. Duckworth — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	L. Darderi		2.00	51%	WON
Games in each set7-5 7-6 DuckworthDarderiPoints won54%46%Serve points won74%67%Return points won33%26%Games held12 of 1211 of 12Break points saved1 of 11 of 2Aces176Double faults21
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	M. Kecmanovic		2.48	61%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 DuckworthKecmanovicPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%61%Return points won39%32%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved2 of 31 of 4Aces64Double faults23
2026-10-14	Jinan	Hard	L. Draxl		1.67	58%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 DuckworthDraxlPoints won45%55%Serve points won58%67%Return points won33%42%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved0 of 310 of 11Aces27Double faults21
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	H. Hurkacz		2.95	67%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 DuckworthHurkaczPoints won45%55%Serve points won73%78%Return points won22%27%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces619Double faults11
2026-09-28	Beijing	Hard	R. Te	0 - 0	—	—	LOST
2026-09-23	Chengdu	Hard	L. Sonego		2.28	57%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 DuckworthSonegoPoints won44%56%Serve points won63%77%Return points won23%37%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved3 of 50 of 0Aces410Double faults11
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	K. Majchrzak		2.12	56%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 3-6 3-6 DuckworthMajchrzakPoints won49%51%Serve points won58%59%Return points won41%42%Games held8 of 139 of 13Break points saved3 of 85 of 9Aces912Double faults32
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	Y. Wu		2.34	58%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 3-6 1-6 DuckworthWuPoints won41%59%Serve points won55%78%Return points won22%45%Games held9 of 1414 of 14Break points saved9 of 140 of 0Aces912Double faults81
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	M. Arnaldi		2.45	60%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-2 7-6 DuckworthArnaldiPoints won52%48%Serve points won63%59%Return points won41%37%Games held17 of 2114 of 20Break points saved11 of 1513 of 19Aces165Double faults47
2026-08-29	Winston-Salem	Hard	A. Fery	RET	2.37	59%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-1 DuckworthFeryPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%82%Return points won18%38%Games held6 of 76 of 6Break points saved3 of 40 of 0Aces04Double faults40

Common questions

Who is favourite, Stefanos Tsitsipas or James Duckworth?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is favourite at 1.25, which is a 76% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is 1.25 and James Duckworth is 4.00, the prices we recorded for the Almaty match.

Who will win Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth?

Our model makes it Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 2-0 at 1.83 (Lean confidence).

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