Stefanos Sakellaridis v Keegan Smith
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTS. Sakellaridis is 2-8 over the last ten and 24-11 on hard this season. K. Smith is 3-7 over the last ten and 31-20 on hard this season. S. Sakellaridis took a medical timeout on 2026-09-29.
The pick is S. Sakellaridis to win. We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.76 or bigger. At 1.64 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| S. Sakellaridis | K. Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| 134 | Ranking | 202 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 | 3-7 |
| LLLLL | Last 5 | LLWWL |
| -3.1 | V the odds | -2.3 |
| 40-25 | Season | 39-27 |
| 24-11 | Hard 2026 | 31-20 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 7d | Days rest | 7d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| MTO | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Jinan | S. SakellaridisvK. Smith | 1 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
S. Sakellaridis — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Jinan | Hard | K. Smith | 1 - 2 | 1.64 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | 1.51 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Jingshan | Hard | Y. Shimizu | 0 - 2 | 1.36 | 69% | LOST |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | N. Gombos | 2 - 0 | 2.53 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | 2.74 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-09-11 | Genova | Clay | L. Djere | 2 - 1 | 2.67 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-09-09 | Genova | Clay | D. Ajdukovic | 1 - 2 | 1.34 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-07 | Genova | Clay | M. Poljicak | 0 - 2 | 1.47 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | Como | Clay | A. Nedic | 1 - 2 | 1.68 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | C. O'Connell | 0 - 2 | 2.46 | 61% | LOST |
K. Smith — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Jinan | Hard | S. Sakellaridis | 1 - 2 | 2.36 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification | Hard | H. Moriya | 1 - 2 | 1.38 | 70% | LOST |
| 2026-10-02 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | M. Krueger | 2 - 0 | 1.79 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-10-01 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | 1.75 | 53% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | K. Bigun | 1 - 2 | 1.33 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification | Hard | D. Dietrich | 0 - 2 | 2.29 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-21 | San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification | Hard | E. Winter | 2 - 1 | 1.61 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-14 | Tiburon | Hard | M. Krueger | 2 - 1 | 1.50 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open | Hard | A. Galarneau | 0 - 2 | 2.34 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-17 | Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification | Hard | S. Kwon | 2 - 1 | 3.64 | 75% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Stefanos Sakellaridis or Keegan Smith?
Stefanos Sakellaridis is favourite at 1.64, which is a 59% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Keegan Smith?
Stefanos Sakellaridis is 1.64 and Keegan Smith is 2.36, the prices we recorded for the Jinan match.
What is the head-to-head between Stefanos Sakellaridis and Keegan Smith?
They have met 1 time and Keegan Smith leads 1-0.
Who will win Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Keegan Smith?
Our model makes it Stefanos Sakellaridis to win at 1.64 (Lean confidence).