ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-01 12:30

Sebastian Baez v Tomas Machac

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

T. Machac to win 2-01.80

Worth backing at 1.76 or bigger · our chance 57% · market 18/82, us 15/85

T. Machac is 6-4 over the last ten and 16-15 on hard this season. S. Baez is 3-7 over the last ten and 25-16 on hard this season. The head to head is S. Baez 0-2.

The pick is T. Machac to win 2-0. We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.76 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

S. Baez		T. Machac
53	Ranking	72
3-7	Last 10	6-4
WLLLW	Last 5	WLWLW
-1.4	V the odds	+0.1
36-30	Season	21-19
25-16	Hard 2026	16-15
1	Last 7 days	2
1d	Days rest	1d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-2

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

S. Baez5.3218%

T. MachacFAV1.1682%

Market says82% Machac

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

S. BaezWLLLW

T. MachacWLWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

S. Baez0

T. Machac2

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-04-14	Barcelona	T. MachacvS. Baez	2-6 6-4 6-1
2025-04-08	Monte Carlo	T. MachacvS. Baez	3-6 6-3 6-2

This season & this event

S. Baez

T. Machac

36-30

25-16

Lost R64 to C. Norrie

Reached R64

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

21-19

16-15

Lost R64 to F. Cobolli

Lost R64 to A. Rinderknech

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

Tomas Machac

Czech Republic

Argentina

34–26

17–12

17–13

0–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Czech Republic

18–17

12–12

6–5

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

S. Baez — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-31	Paris	Hard (Indoor)	D. Dzumhur		2.54	62%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-5 BaezDzumhurPoints won52%48%Serve points won59%53%Return points won47%41%Games held8 of 127 of 12Break points saved8 of 128 of 13Aces45Double faults03
2026-10-24	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	G. Mpetshi Perricard		2.33	59%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-3 3-6 BaezPerricardPoints won48%52%Serve points won63%67%Return points won33%37%Games held10 of 1312 of 14Break points saved2 of 51 of 3Aces222Double faults04
2026-10-20	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	P. Herbert		2.42	60%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 BaezHerbertPoints won46%54%Serve points won59%70%Return points won30%41%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved12 of 145 of 5Aces010Double faults13
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	V. Vacherot		3.55	73%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 BaezVacherotPoints won45%55%Serve points won66%77%Return points won23%34%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved1 of 32 of 3Aces515Double faults01
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	M. Giron		1.76	55%	WON
Games in each set1-6 6-3 6-4 BaezGironPoints won51%49%Serve points won56%55%Return points won45%44%Games held8 of 138 of 13Break points saved6 of 115 of 10Aces28Double faults02
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	J. Shang		2.33	58%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 3-6 5-7 BaezShangPoints won48%52%Serve points won56%60%Return points won40%44%Games held11 of 1712 of 16Break points saved9 of 158 of 12Aces33Double faults32
2026-09-23	Chengdu	Hard	J. Brooksby		2.36	59%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 5-7 BaezBrooksbyPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%72%Return points won28%32%Games held10 of 1212 of 12Break points saved0 of 22 of 2Aces71Double faults01
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	B. Nakashima		6.53	85%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 1-6 0-6 BaezNakashimaPoints won33%67%Serve points won42%75%Return points won25%58%Games held3 of 1011 of 11Break points saved4 of 113 of 3Aces012Double faults40
2026-08-26	Winston-Salem	Hard	H. Grenier		1.26	77%	WON
Games in each set7-5 7-6 BaezGrenierPoints won55%45%Serve points won59%50%Return points won50%41%Games held8 of 127 of 12Break points saved10 of 144 of 9Aces010Double faults43
2026-08-26	Winston-Salem	Hard	J. M. Cerundolo	RET	1.67	58%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 0-4 BaezCerundoloPoints won35%65%Serve points won39%68%Return points won32%61%Games held1 of 65 of 6Break points saved4 of 93 of 4Aces02Double faults12

T. Machac — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-31	Paris	Hard (Indoor)	M. Landaluce	1.50	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 MachacLandalucePoints won56%44%Serve points won70%60%Return points won40%30%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved7 of 74 of 6Aces26Double faults12
2026-10-26	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	A. De Minaur	2.97	67%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 4-6 3-6 MachacMinaurPoints won51%49%Serve points won57%56%Return points won44%43%Games held8 of 138 of 13Break points saved6 of 113 of 8Aces32Double faults33
2026-10-24	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	C. Moutet	1.58	61%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MachacMoutetPoints won58%42%Serve points won71%52%Return points won48%29%Games held7 of 74 of 6Break points saved0 of 02 of 4Aces51Double faults20
2026-10-22	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	K. Khachanov	3.29	70%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-7 MachacKhachanovPoints won48%52%Serve points won66%71%Return points won29%34%Games held13 of 1514 of 15Break points saved4 of 614 of 15Aces314Double faults22
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	Z. Nurlanuly	1.04	93%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-0 MachacNurlanulyPoints won65%35%Serve points won69%40%Return points won60%31%Games held6 of 71 of 7Break points saved3 of 42 of 8Aces80Double faults12
2026-10-16	Jinan	Hard	L. Draxl	1.38	70%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 4-6 MachacDraxlPoints won50%50%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held10 of 1510 of 14Break points saved5 of 1012 of 16Aces85Double faults30
2026-10-15	Jinan	Hard	A. Vukic	1.45	67%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 MachacVukicPoints won61%39%Serve points won72%49%Return points won51%28%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved0 of 02 of 6Aces52Double faults02
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	A. Muller	1.45	67%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MachacMullerPoints won56%44%Serve points won69%54%Return points won46%31%Games held8 of 96 of 10Break points saved1 of 24 of 8Aces42Double faults01
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	A. Bublik	2.73	64%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 MachacBublikPoints won44%56%Serve points won60%77%Return points won23%40%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved4 of 60 of 1Aces418Double faults21
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	Z. Zhang	1.43	68%	WON
Games in each set1-6 7-6 6-2 MachacZhangPoints won51%49%Serve points won61%57%Return points won43%39%Games held9 of 1310 of 14Break points saved8 of 127 of 11Aces510Double faults11

Common questions

Who is favourite, Sebastian Baez or Tomas Machac?

Tomas Machac is favourite at 1.16, which is a 82% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Machac?

Sebastian Baez is 5.32 and Tomas Machac is 1.16, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

What is the head-to-head between Sebastian Baez and Tomas Machac?

They have met 2 times and Tomas Machac leads 2-0.

Who will win Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Machac?

Our model makes it Tomas Machac to win 2-0 at 1.80 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Hijikata v Kopriva Tirante v Bellucci Cerundolo v Kecmanovic Bonzi v Hanfmann Vallejo v Sonego Borges v Molcan