Philip Henning v Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONP. Henning is 6-4 over the last ten and 13-10 on clay this season. I. Marrero Curbelo is 4-6 over the last ten and 9-7 on clay this season.
The pick is P. Henning to win. We make it a 74% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.35 or bigger. At 1.22 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| P. Henning | I. Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| 324 | Ranking | 481 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| WLLWW | Last 5 | WLLLW |
| -0.3 | V the odds | -0.1 |
| 38-21 | Season | 32-18 |
| 13-10 | Clay 2026 | 9-7 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Villena | P. HenningvI. Marrero Curbelo | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
P. Henning — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Villena | Clay | I. Marrero Curbelo | 2 - 0 | 1.22 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Villena | Clay | T. Boogaard | 2 - 1 | 1.42 | 65% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Mouilleron-Le-Captif | Hard (Indoor) | T. Schoolkate | 0 - 2 | 2.70 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-09-26 | M25 Setubal | Hard | A. Deckers | 2 - 0 | 1.27 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-09-25 | M25 Setubal | Hard | R. Bertrand | 0 - 2 | 1.50 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-24 | M25 Setubal | Hard | T. Curras Abasolo | 0 - 2 | 1.03 | 90% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | M25 Setubal | Hard | J. D. Silva | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group II | - Preliminary | A. Nedic | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-21 | M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 | Hard | R. Fernandes | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 | Hard | D. Coelho | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
I. Marrero Curbelo — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Villena | Clay | P. Henning | 2 - 0 | 3.38 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-10-04 | Villena | Clay | J. Sheehy | 1 - 2 | 1.44 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Porto | Clay | L. Potenza | 1 - 2 | 2.25 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-07 | Istanbul | Clay | M. Kasnikowski | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | Mallorca | Hard | O. Paldanius | 1 - 0 RET | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification | Hard | B. Bicknell | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification | Hard | A. Andrade | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-17 | Kingston (Jamaica) | Hard | L. Andrade da Silva | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-16 | Kingston (Jamaica) | Hard | L. Seidman | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-07 | Grodzisk Mazowiecki | Hard | M. Erhard | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Philip Henning or Ivan Marrero Curbelo?
Philip Henning is favourite at 1.22, which is a 73% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Philip Henning vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo?
Philip Henning is 1.22 and Ivan Marrero Curbelo is 3.38, the prices we recorded for the Villena match.
What is the head-to-head between Philip Henning and Ivan Marrero Curbelo?
They have met 1 time and Philip Henning leads 1-0.
Who will win Philip Henning vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo?
Our model makes it Philip Henning to win at 1.22 (Lean confidence).