Pablo Carreno-Busta v Felix Auger-Aliassime
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidWONP. Carreno-Busta is 5-5 over the last ten and 14-12 on hard this season. F. Auger-Aliassime is 6-4 over the last ten and 19-9 on hard this season. The head to head is P. Carreno-Busta 0-1.
The pick is P. Carreno-Busta to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 59% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.69 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| P. Carreno-Busta | F. Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| 66 | Ranking | 5 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WWLWW | Last 5 | WLWWL |
| +0.0 | V the odds | -1.0 |
| 32-20 | Season | 39-17 |
| 14-12 | Hard 2026 | 19-9 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 2 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Recent form
Last five completed matches, most recent first.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | P. Carreno-BustavF. Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 2 |
| 2020-02-15 | Rotterdam | P. Carreno-BustavF. Auger-Aliassime | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
P. Carreno-Busta — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 2 | 3.79 | 74% | LOST |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Tabilo | 1 - 2 | 2.62 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Navone | 1 - 2 | 2.18 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Beijing | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 | 4.29 | 77% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Beijing | Hard | A. Mannarino | 0 - 2 | 1.59 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Beijing | Hard | Y. Zhou | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | J. Lehecka | 3 - 1 | 4.59 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | Winston-Salem | Hard | D. Vallejo | 0 - 1 RET | 1.74 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | 2.85 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Machac | 0 - 2 | 1.85 | 52% | WON |
F. Auger-Aliassime — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | 1.31 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | 1.08 | 89% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | K. Khachanov | 2 - 0 | 1.65 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | 1.23 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | 1.32 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | K. Khachanov | 1 - 3 | 1.38 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | R. Hijikata | 3 - 1 | 1.10 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | 1.48 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | 1.21 | 81% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | 1.75 | 55% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Pablo Carreno-Busta or Felix Auger-Aliassime?
Felix Auger-Aliassime is favourite at 1.31, which is a 74% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime?
Pablo Carreno-Busta is 3.79 and Felix Auger-Aliassime is 1.31, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Felix Auger-Aliassime?
They have met 2 times and Felix Auger-Aliassime leads 2-0.
Who will win Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime?
Our model makes it Pablo Carreno-Busta to win a set (Solid confidence).