THE TENNIS TRADER
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ATPHardShanghai · 1/16-finals2026-10-12 04:00

Ben Shelton v Arthur Gea

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

SolidWON
A. Gea to win a set (set handicap +1.5)
Worth backing at 1.60 or bigger · our chance 63% · market 72/28, us 66/34

A. Gea is 8-2 over the last ten and 30-8 on hard this season. B. Shelton is 7-3 over the last ten and 26-8 on hard this season.

The pick is A. Gea to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 63% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.60 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

B. SheltonA. Gea
9Ranking58
7-3Last 108-2
WLLLWLast 5WWLWW
+0.6V the odds+2.3
41-16Season47-18
26-8Hard 202630-8
1Last 7 days2
2dDays rest2d
1Wins here2
ClearFitnessClear
Head to head
First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

B. SheltonFAV1.3672%
A. Gea3.4428%
Market says72% Shelton

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

B. Shelton0
A. Gea1
Head to head1 meeting
DateEventMatchScore
2026-10-11ShanghaiB. SheltonvA. Gea0 - 2

This season & this event

B. Shelton
A. Gea
41-17
26-9
Lost R64 to D. Goffin
Lost R16 to J. Sinner
2026 record
2026 on hard
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
49-18
32-8
Did not play
Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Ben Shelton
USA
Arthur Gea
France
9
24
USA
39–14
4
25–7
8–5
6–2
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
58
21
France
43–17
2
26–5
12–8
5–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

B. Shelton — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-12ShanghaiHardA. Gea0 - 21.3672%LOST
2026-10-10ShanghaiHardD. Altmaier2 - 01.1187%WON
2026-09-19ATP Davis Cup - World Group- Play OffsJ. Mensik2 - 11.6957%LOST
2026-09-18ATP Davis Cup - World Group- Play OffsJ. Lehecka2 - 01.5760%LOST
2026-09-13US OpenHardA. Zverev3 - 12.3659%LOST
2026-09-11US OpenHardF. Tiafoe1 - 31.3672%WON
2026-09-08US OpenHardC. Alcaraz3 - 24.1076%WON
2026-09-07US OpenHardS. Tsitsipas3 - 01.3473%WON
2026-09-04US OpenHardD. Shapovalov3 - 11.2578%WON
2026-09-02US OpenHardH. Hurkacz3 - 11.4368%WON

A. Gea — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-14ShanghaiHardJ. Mensik2 - 02.4861%WON
2026-10-12ShanghaiHardB. Shelton0 - 23.4472%WON
2026-10-10ShanghaiHardU. Humbert2 - 11.8552%WON
2026-10-07ShanghaiHardJ. Faria2 - 11.5662%WON
2026-10-02BeijingHardH. Hurkacz2 - 12.2857%LOST
2026-09-30BeijingHardZ. Zhang0 - 21.2975%WON
2026-09-29BeijingHardT. Machac0 - 21.6257%WON
2026-09-28BeijingHardR. Te0 - 2——WON
2026-09-07US OpenHardB. Van De Zandschulp2 - 32.4059%LOST
2026-09-05US OpenHardM. Zheng2 - 32.2256%WON

Common questions

Who is favourite, Ben Shelton or Arthur Gea?

Ben Shelton is favourite at 1.36, which is a 72% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea?

Ben Shelton is 1.36 and Arthur Gea is 3.44, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.

What is the head-to-head between Ben Shelton and Arthur Gea?

They have met 1 time and Arthur Gea leads 1-0.

Who will win Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea?

Our model makes it Arthur Gea to win a set (Solid confidence).

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