Alex De Minaur v Rei Sakamoto
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidLOSTR. Sakamoto is 7-3 over the last ten and 31-17 on hard this season. A. De Minaur is 8-2 over the last ten and 20-12 on hard this season. A. De Minaur took a medical timeout on 2026-10-06. A. De Minaur retired from a match in the last month. R. Sakamoto has played 4 matches in seven days.
The pick is R. Sakamoto to win. We make it a 38% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.64 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. De Minaur | R. Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ranking | 137 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| LWWWW | Last 5 | WWWWL |
| +1.4 | V the odds | +0.9 |
| 40-19 | Season | 39-22 |
| 20-12 | Hard 2026 | 31-17 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 6d | Days rest | 2d |
| 0 | Wins here | 4 |
| MTOretired | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Shanghai | A. De MinaurvR. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. De Minaur — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | K. Khachanov | 2 - 0 | 1.80 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | 1.42 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-10-06 | Beijing | Hard | N. Djokovic | 1 - 0 RET | 2.53 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Beijing | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 0 RET | 1.74 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | 1.75 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | 1.36 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | M. Navone | 2 - 0 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | 3.75 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | M. Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | 1.07 | 88% | WON |
R. Sakamoto — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 | 3.13 | 69% | LOST |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | 3.30 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | 1.47 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | K. Jacquet | 1 - 2 | 2.24 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | S. C. Hong | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | A. Shepp | 0 - 2 | 1.13 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Nam Ji | 0 - 2 | 1.06 | 90% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | 4.14 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | A. Vukic | 2 - 3 | 1.69 | 57% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alex De Minaur or Rei Sakamoto?
Alex De Minaur is favourite at 1.42, which is a 69% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alex De Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto?
Alex De Minaur is 1.42 and Rei Sakamoto is 3.13, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Alex De Minaur and Rei Sakamoto?
They have met 1 time and Alex De Minaur leads 1-0.
Who will win Alex De Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model makes it Rei Sakamoto to win at 3.13 (Solid confidence).