Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Frances Tiafoe
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
StrongLOSTF. Tiafoe is 8-2 over the last ten and 28-13 on hard this season. A. Davidovich Fokina is 7-3 over the last ten and 21-10 on hard this season. A. Davidovich Fokina took a medical timeout on 2026-10-09. The head to head is A. Davidovich Fokina 1-3.
The pick is F. Tiafoe to win. We make it a 58% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.74 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Davidovich Fokina | F. Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Ranking | 8 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WLWWW | Last 5 | WLWLW |
| +0.6 | V the odds | +2.3 |
| 28-16 | Season | 44-19 |
| 21-10 | Hard 2026 | 28-13 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| MTO | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-3 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Shanghai | A. Davidovich FokinavF. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| 2025-03-23 | Miami | A. Davidovich FokinavF. Tiafoe | 0 - 2 |
| 2025-02-27 | Acapulco | F. TiafoevA. Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 |
| 2024-08-13 | ATP Cincinnati | A. Davidovich FokinavF. Tiafoe | 0 - 2 |
| 2022-04-29 | Estoril | A. Davidovich FokinavF. Tiafoe | 1 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Davidovich Fokina — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | 2.00 | 51% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 | 1.96 | 50% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | J. Brooksby | 2 - 0 | 1.44 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | 1.67 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Chengdu | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | 2.22 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Chengdu | Hard | N. Basilashvili | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | 1.33 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | Chengdu | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | 1.67 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-07-16 | Umag | clay | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | 1.73 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-07-15 | Umag | clay | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | 1.38 | 70% | WON |
F. Tiafoe — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | 1.94 | 50% | LOST |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | 1.38 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-10-02 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | 3.42 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | K. Nishikori | 0 - 2 | 1.18 | 82% | WON |
| 2026-09-11 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 1 - 3 | 3.44 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | A. Michelsen | 3 - 2 | 1.67 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | D. Medvedev | 0 - 3 | 2.51 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | V. Vacherot | 0 - 3 | 1.53 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 0 - 3 | 1.28 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | M. Damm | 2 - 3 | 1.24 | 78% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or Frances Tiafoe?
Frances Tiafoe is favourite at 1.94, which is a 50% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe?
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 1.96 and Frances Tiafoe is 1.94, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Frances Tiafoe?
They have met 5 times and Frances Tiafoe leads 3-2.
Who will win Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model makes it Frances Tiafoe to win at 1.94 (Strong confidence).