WTAHardTokyo · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 03:00

Naomi Osaka v Jasmine Paolini

The market

N. OsakaFAV1.3273%

J. Paolini3.6127%

Market says73% Osaka

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

N. OsakaLWWLW

J. PaoliniLWLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

N. Osaka0

J. Paolini1

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2025-03-24	Miami	N. OsakavJ. Paolini	6-3 4-6 4-6

This season & this event

N. Osaka

J. Paolini

30-12

17-8

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

22-18

14-12

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Naomi Osaka

Japan

Jasmine Paolini

Italy

Japan

30–11

15–6

7–3

8–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Italy

10–9

8–7

1–2

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

N. Osaka — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-06	Beijing	Hard	K. Muchova	2.18	55%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-1 6-7 OsakaMuchovaPoints won52%48%Serve points won61%58%Return points won42%39%Games held12 of 1610 of 15Break points saved14 of 185 of 10Aces114Double faults11
2026-10-04	Beijing	Hard	S. Bejlek	1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 OsakaBejlekPoints won52%48%Serve points won64%61%Return points won39%36%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved7 of 98 of 11Aces05Double faults25
2026-10-02	Beijing	Hard	M. Timofeeva	1.26	77%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-3 OsakaTimofeevaPoints won53%47%Serve points won62%59%Return points won41%38%Games held11 of 149 of 13Break points saved7 of 104 of 8Aces23Double faults12
2026-09-07	US Open	Hard	E. Rybakina	2.16	55%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 4-6 OsakaRybakinaPoints won41%59%Serve points won54%73%Return points won27%46%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved5 of 81 of 1Aces27Double faults51
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	E. Mertens	1.33	73%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 7-5 OsakaMertensPoints won51%49%Serve points won61%59%Return points won41%39%Games held12 of 1511 of 15Break points saved8 of 1112 of 16Aces93Double faults25
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	K. Siniakova	1.29	76%	WON
Games in each set6-2 5-7 6-1 OsakaSiniakovaPoints won56%44%Serve points won61%50%Return points won50%39%Games held11 of 147 of 13Break points saved5 of 84 of 10Aces113Double faults57
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	A. Zakharova	1.11	87%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 OsakaZakharovaPoints won54%46%Serve points won63%54%Return points won46%37%Games held8 of 128 of 12Break points saved3 of 73 of 7Aces110Double faults34
2026-08-12	Toronto	Hard	E. Rybakina	1.97	51%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 4-6 OsakaRybakinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won61%62%Return points won38%39%Games held13 of 1613 of 16Break points saved3 of 64 of 7Aces315Double faults66
2026-08-10	Toronto	Hard	L. Fernandez	1.42	69%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 OsakaFernandezPoints won57%43%Serve points won73%60%Return points won40%27%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved2 of 33 of 6Aces71Double faults21
2026-08-08	Toronto	Hard	E. Mertens	1.41	69%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-2 OsakaMertensPoints won64%36%Serve points won74%45%Return points won55%26%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved3 of 34 of 8Aces75Double faults25

J. Paolini — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-22	Ningbo	Hard	I. Jovic	2.79	65%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 PaoliniJovicPoints won42%58%Serve points won45%61%Return points won39%55%Games held4 of 106 of 9Break points saved5 of 111 of 4Aces03Double faults26
2026-10-20	Ningbo	Hard	A. Kalinina	1.46	67%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-5 PaoliniKalininaPoints won56%44%Serve points won52%41%Return points won59%48%Games held6 of 103 of 10Break points saved3 of 76 of 13Aces30Double faults78
2026-10-15	Wuhan	Hard	S. Kartal	1.82	54%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 0-6 PaoliniKartalPoints won33%67%Serve points won30%64%Return points won36%70%Games held1 of 76 of 7Break points saved3 of 92 of 3Aces02Double faults41
2026-10-14	Wuhan	Hard	N. Bartunkova	2.23	56%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 PaoliniBartunkovaPoints won53%47%Serve points won61%55%Return points won45%39%Games held8 of 107 of 11Break points saved8 of 102 of 6Aces26Double faults45
2026-10-12	Wuhan	Hard	S. Bejlek	2.02	52%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 PaoliniBejlekPoints won53%47%Serve points won53%47%Return points won53%47%Games held6 of 103 of 9Break points saved8 of 129 of 15Aces01Double faults74
2026-10-02	Beijing	Hard	D. Snigur	1.76	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 6-7 2-6 PaoliniSnigurPoints won48%52%Serve points won51%56%Return points won44%49%Games held9 of 159 of 14Break points saved11 of 173 of 8Aces22Double faults34
2026-09-26	WTA Billie Jean King Cup - World Group	- Qualification	E. Svitolina	—	—	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 PaoliniSvitolinaPoints won35%65%Serve points won43%75%Return points won25%57%Games held3 of 87 of 8Break points saved2 of 70 of 1Aces12Double faults01
2026-09-24	WTA Billie Jean King Cup - World Group	- Qualification	Q. Zheng	3.45	72%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 PaoliniZhengPoints won53%47%Serve points won63%58%Return points won42%37%Games held9 of 117 of 10Break points saved5 of 72 of 5Aces19Double faults24
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	S. Cirstea	2.54	62%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 PaoliniCirsteaPoints won41%59%Serve points won46%66%Return points won34%54%Games held4 of 97 of 9Break points saved9 of 142 of 4Aces17Double faults43
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	L. Stefanini	1.44	68%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-1 PaoliniStefaniniPoints won56%44%Serve points won57%45%Return points won55%43%Games held6 of 83 of 9Break points saved2 of 43 of 9Aces00Double faults33

Common questions

Who is favourite, Naomi Osaka or Jasmine Paolini?

Naomi Osaka is favourite at 1.32, which is a 73% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini?

Naomi Osaka is 1.32 and Jasmine Paolini is 3.61, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.

What is the head-to-head between Naomi Osaka and Jasmine Paolini?

They have met 1 time and Jasmine Paolini leads 1-0.

Also at this event

Eala v Stojsavljevic Fernandez v Sakatsume Li v Alexandrova Parry v Bucsa Uchijima v Mertens Joint v Cirstea