Matias Soto v Lautaro Midon
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONL. Midon is 6-4 over the last ten and 22-15 on clay this season. M. Soto is 5-5 over the last ten and 23-16 on clay this season. The head to head is M. Soto 1-0.
The pick is L. Midon to win. We make it a 62% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.62 or bigger. At 1.53 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Soto | L. Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| 237 | Ranking | - |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| LWWLL | Last 5 | LLWWL |
| +0.9 | V the odds | +1.3 |
| 34-19 | Season | 30-21 |
| 23-16 | Clay 2026 | 22-15 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 9d | Days rest | 36d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | 36d out |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | M. SotovL. Midon | 0 - 2 |
| 2024-11-01 | ITF M25 Lajeado Men | L. MidonvM. Soto | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Soto — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | L. Midon | 0 - 2 | 2.52 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | M. Landaluce | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-09 | Tulln | Clay | M. Moeller | 1 - 2 | 2.84 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-07 | Tulln | Clay | S. Kopp | 2 - 0 | 3.21 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | Como | Clay | K. Feldbausch | 0 - 2 | 4.36 | 78% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Augsburg | Clay | M. Moeller | 2 - 0 | 3.11 | 69% | LOST |
| 2026-08-25 | Augsburg | Clay | O. Krutykh | 0 - 2 | 2.82 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Prague | Clay | R. Molleker | 0 - 2 | 2.83 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-07-24 | M25 Sao Paulo | Clay | F. Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | 2.43 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-07-23 | M25 Sao Paulo | Clay | R. Tosetto | 2 - 0 | 1.09 | 88% | WON |
L. Midon — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Curitiba | Clay | B. Fernandez | 0 - 2 | 1.13 | 84% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | M. Soto | 0 - 2 | 1.55 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open | Hard | K. Jacquet | 2 - 0 | 5.33 | 82% | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Kingston (Jamaica) | Hard | C. Chidekh | 2 - 0 | 3.21 | 70% | LOST |
| 2026-08-19 | Kingston (Jamaica) | Hard | I. Marcondes | 1 - 1 RET | 2.10 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-08-17 | Kingston (Jamaica) | Hard | D. Martin | 1 - 2 | 1.17 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-07-16 | Bastad | Clay | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | 3.90 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-07-14 | Bastad | Clay | F. Diaz Acosta | 1 - 2 | 4.10 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-07-13 | Bastad | Clay | I. Marcondes | 0 - 2 | 1.58 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-07-12 | Bastad | Clay | W. Rejchtman Vinciguerra | 0 - 2 | 1.06 | 90% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Matias Soto or Lautaro Midon?
Lautaro Midon is favourite at 1.55, which is a 62% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Matias Soto vs Lautaro Midon?
Matias Soto is 2.52 and Lautaro Midon is 1.55, the prices we recorded for the Curitiba match.
What is the head-to-head between Matias Soto and Lautaro Midon?
They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.
Who will win Matias Soto vs Lautaro Midon?
Our model makes it Lautaro Midon to win at 1.53 (Lean confidence).