Mateus Alves v Bruno Fernandez
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONM. Alves is 8-2 over the last ten and 33-10 on clay this season. B. Fernandez is 4-6 over the last ten and 22-24 on clay this season. M. Alves took a medical timeout on 2026-10-01.
The pick is M. Alves to win. We make it a 67% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.49 or bigger. At 1.40 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Alves | B. Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| 385 | Ranking | 626 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| LWLWW | Last 5 | WLLWL |
| -0.8 | V the odds | -1.4 |
| 38-16 | Season | 24-27 |
| 33-10 | Clay 2026 | 22-24 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 7d | Days rest | 1d |
| 0 | Wins here | 1 |
| MTO | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Santa Cruz 2 | M. AlvesvB. Fernandez | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Alves — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Santa Cruz 2 | Clay | B. Fernandez | 2 - 1 | 1.41 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Antofagasta | Clay | J. Pereira | 0 - 2 | 1.17 | 81% | LOST |
| 2026-10-04 | Antofagasta | Clay | B. De La Pena | 2 - 0 | 1.01 | 94% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Curitiba | Clay | G. Villanueva | 0 - 2 | 1.40 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | J. Pereira | 1 - 2 | 1.08 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | P. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | W. Leite | 2 - 0 | 1.09 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | V. C. Loureiro J. | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-24 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | P. H. Chabalgoity | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | M. Mouilleron Salvo | 2 - 0 | 1.01 | 93% | WON |
B. Fernandez — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Santa Cruz 2 | Clay | M. Alves | 2 - 1 | 2.89 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-10-11 | Santa Cruz 2 | Clay | N. Donoso | 0 - 2 | 1.01 | 94% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Antofagasta | Clay | B. Munk Mesa | 2 - 0 | 1.58 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Curitiba | Clay | L. Midon | 0 - 2 | 5.90 | 84% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | W. Leite | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Curitiba | Clay | V. H. Remondy Pagotto | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-27 | Curitiba | Clay | F. Zeballos | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | F. Roncadelli | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-21 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | T. Farjat | 0 - 2 | 1.32 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-09-20 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | D. Pagani | 2 - 0 | 1.38 | 69% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Mateus Alves or Bruno Fernandez?
Mateus Alves is favourite at 1.41, which is a 67% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Mateus Alves vs Bruno Fernandez?
Mateus Alves is 1.41 and Bruno Fernandez is 2.89, the prices we recorded for the Santa Cruz 2 match.
What is the head-to-head between Mateus Alves and Bruno Fernandez?
They have met 1 time and Mateus Alves leads 1-0.
Who will win Mateus Alves vs Bruno Fernandez?
Our model makes it Mateus Alves to win at 1.40 (Lean confidence).