Mateus Alves v Bautista De La Pena
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONM. Alves is 9-1 over the last ten and 27-9 on clay this season. B. De La Pena is 1-9 over the last ten and 2-11 on clay this season.
The pick is M. Alves to win. We make it a 91% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.10 or bigger. At 1.02 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Alves | B. De La Pena | |
|---|---|---|
| 548 | Ranking | - |
| 9-1 | Last 10 | 1-9 |
| LWWWW | Last 5 | LLLLW |
| -0.3 | V the odds | - |
| 37-15 | Season | 2-13 |
| 27-9 | Clay 2026 | 2-11 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 3d | Days rest | 33d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | 33d out |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Antofagasta | M. AlvesvB. De La Pena | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Alves — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Antofagasta | Clay | J. Pereira | 0 - 2 | 1.17 | 81% | LOST |
| 2026-10-04 | Antofagasta | Clay | B. De La Pena | 2 - 0 | 1.02 | 92% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Curitiba | Clay | G. Villanueva | 0 - 2 | 1.40 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | J. Pereira | 1 - 2 | 1.08 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | P. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | W. Leite | 2 - 0 | 1.09 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | V. C. Loureiro J. | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-24 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | P. H. Chabalgoity | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | Clay | M. Mouilleron Salvo | 2 - 0 | 1.01 | 93% | WON |
| 2026-09-13 | M15 Leme (Brazil) | Clay | P. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
B. De La Pena — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Antofagasta | Clay | M. Alves | 2 - 0 | 12.00 | 92% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | M15 Trelew (Argentina), Hard | — | N. Schachter | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-18 | M15 Asuncion 2 (Paraguay) | Clay | N. Cox | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-06-14 | Asuncion 2 (Paraguay) - Qualification | Clay | A. Huertas Del Pino Cordova | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-06-11 | M15 Brasilia | Clay | L. F. Miguel | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-06-10 | M15 Brasilia | Clay | R. A. Garcia Finetto | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-06-03 | M25 Cuiaba | Clay | L. E. de Carvalho Damazio | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-05-10 | Cordoba 2 | Clay | C. Huertas Del Pino | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-03-25 | M15 Punta del Este 2 | Clay | I. Monzon | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-03-18 | M15 Punta del Este | Clay | M. Del Pino | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Mateus Alves or Bautista De La Pena?
Mateus Alves is favourite at 1.02, which is a 92% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Mateus Alves vs Bautista De La Pena?
Mateus Alves is 1.02 and Bautista De La Pena is 12.00, the prices we recorded for the Antofagasta match.
What is the head-to-head between Mateus Alves and Bautista De La Pena?
They have met 1 time and Mateus Alves leads 1-0.
Who will win Mateus Alves vs Bautista De La Pena?
Our model makes it Mateus Alves to win at 1.02 (Lean confidence).