ChallengerHardBrest2026-10-29 10:00

Martin Damm v Ugo Blanchet

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

U. Blanchet to win3.20

Worth backing at 3.12 or bigger · our chance 32% · market 71/29, us 68/32

U. Blanchet is 7-3 over the last ten and 23-20 on hard this season. M. Damm is 4-6 over the last ten and 29-21 on hard this season.

The pick is U. Blanchet to win. We make it a 32% chance, so it is only worth backing at 3.12 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Damm		U. Blanchet
104	Ranking	305
4-6	Last 10	7-3
WLWLW	Last 5	WWWLL
-0.8	V the odds	+0.7
35-29	Season	25-27
29-21	Hard 2026	23-20
1	Last 7 days	3
2d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	3
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. DammFAV1.2971%

U. Blanchet3.2029%

Market says71% Damm

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. DammWLWLW

U. BlanchetWWWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

M. Damm

U. Blanchet

35-29

29-21

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

25-27

23-20

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Martin Damm

USA

Ugo Blanchet

France

104

USA

32–28

18–17

7–6

7–5

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

305

France

19–25

16–15

3–8

0–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Damm — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Brest	Hard	S. Gueymard Wayenburg	1.59	61%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 DammWayenburgPoints won56%44%Serve points won85%70%Return points won30%15%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 03 of 5Aces813Double faults00
2026-10-21	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	F. Cerundolo	2.49	61%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 DammCerundoloPoints won46%54%Serve points won64%71%Return points won29%36%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved0 of 26 of 7Aces912Double faults44
2026-10-19	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	Y. Hanfmann	2.04	52%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 DammHanfmannPoints won57%43%Serve points won81%67%Return points won33%19%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved0 of 03 of 5Aces118Double faults23
2026-10-18	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	A. Guerrieri	1.35	71%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 7-6 3-6 DammGuerrieriPoints won48%52%Serve points won62%65%Return points won35%38%Games held13 of 1714 of 16Break points saved5 of 97 of 9Aces1413Double faults65
2026-10-17	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	B. Gadamauri	1.17	82%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 DammGadamauriPoints won59%41%Serve points won74%60%Return points won40%26%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved5 of 51 of 4Aces75Double faults03
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	P. Kotov	1.42	68%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 7-6 3-6 DammKotovPoints won47%53%Serve points won71%78%Return points won22%29%Games held15 of 1716 of 16Break points saved4 of 62 of 2Aces279Double faults22
2026-09-28	Tokyo	Hard	A. Fils	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-2 1-6 1-6 DammFilsPoints won43%57%Serve points won54%71%Return points won29%46%Games held6 of 119 of 11Break points saved4 of 91 of 3Aces86Double faults02
2026-09-26	Chengdu	Hard	H. Hurkacz	3.19	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 4-6 DammHurkaczPoints won46%54%Serve points won65%73%Return points won27%35%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved2 of 54 of 6Aces1813Double faults32
2026-09-24	Chengdu	Hard	S. Mochizuki	1.56	62%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 DammMochizukiPoints won58%42%Serve points won65%51%Return points won49%35%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved4 of 52 of 6Aces135Double faults22
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	F. Tiafoe	4.47	78%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-3 3-6 4-6 DammTiafoePoints won50%50%Serve points won66%66%Return points won34%34%Games held21 of 2422 of 24Break points saved6 of 94 of 6Aces2812Double faults116

U. Blanchet — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Brest	Hard	F. Balshaw	2.20	56%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 BlanchetBalshawPoints won54%46%Serve points won73%63%Return points won37%27%Games held13 of 1412 of 14Break points saved3 of 44 of 6Aces610Double faults13
2026-10-26	Brest	Hard	V. Ursu	1.10	85%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 BlanchetUrsuPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%56%Return points won44%35%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 24 of 8Aces21Double faults03
2026-10-25	Brest	Hard	S. Hamza Reguig	1.04	92%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-1 BlanchetReguigPoints won64%36%Serve points won75%48%Return points won52%25%Games held6 of 62 of 6Break points saved2 of 21 of 5Aces20Double faults00
2026-10-18	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	N. Budkov Kjaer	2.54	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 1-6 3-6 BlanchetKjaerPoints won46%54%Serve points won56%65%Return points won35%44%Games held8 of 1310 of 12Break points saved6 of 118 of 10Aces54Double faults61
2026-10-15	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	J. Kym	2.79	65%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 3-6 BlanchetKymPoints won39%61%Serve points won52%74%Return points won26%48%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved5 of 90 of 0Aces34Double faults11
2026-10-13	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	T. Paris	1.38	70%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 BlanchetParisPoints won54%46%Serve points won70%63%Return points won37%30%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved1 of 23 of 5Aces32Double faults32
2026-10-12	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	D. De Jonge	1.21	79%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 BlanchetJongePoints won59%41%Serve points won84%63%Return points won37%16%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved4 of 45 of 7Aces89Double faults26
2026-10-11	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	N. Tepmahc	1.07	89%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 BlanchetTepmahcPoints won64%36%Serve points won72%47%Return points won53%28%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved1 of 11 of 5Aces30Double faults11
2026-10-01	Mouilleron-Le-Captif	Hard (Indoor)	C. Chidekh	3.17	70%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 2-6 BlanchetChidekhPoints won45%55%Serve points won57%72%Return points won28%43%Games held10 of 1411 of 13Break points saved2 of 63 of 5Aces55Double faults12
2026-09-29	Mouilleron-Le-Captif	Hard (Indoor)	V. Durasovic	1.31	71%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 BlanchetDurasovicPoints won58%42%Serve points won72%56%Return points won44%28%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved3 of 41 of 4Aces75Double faults00

Common questions

Who is favourite, Martin Damm or Ugo Blanchet?

Martin Damm is favourite at 1.29, which is a 71% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Martin Damm vs Ugo Blanchet?

Martin Damm is 1.29 and Ugo Blanchet is 3.20, the prices we recorded for the Brest match.

Who will win Martin Damm vs Ugo Blanchet?

Our model makes it Ugo Blanchet to win at 3.20 (Lean confidence).

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