Francesco Maestrelli v Gabriel Diallo
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanG. Diallo is 5-5 over the last ten and 7-12 on hard this season. F. Maestrelli is 4-6 over the last ten and 15-16 on hard this season. The head to head is F. Maestrelli 1-0.
The pick is G. Diallo to win. We make it a 74% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.35 or bigger. At 1.31 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| F. Maestrelli | G. Diallo | |
|---|---|---|
| 171 | Ranking | 40 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 5-5 |
| WLLWL | Last 5 | WLWLW |
| -1.0 | V the odds | -0.0 |
| 19-29 | Season | 12-20 |
| 15-16 | Hard 2026 | 7-12 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-02 | Canberra | F. MaestrellivG. Diallo | 3-6 7-6 6-4 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
F. Maestrelli — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Brest | Hard | M. Echargui | 1.62 | 60% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-3 MaestrelliEcharguiPoints won53%47%Serve points won70%71%Return points won29%30%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved7 of 70 of 1Aces142Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-18 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | B. Gojo | 2.86 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-7 MaestrelliGojoPoints won49%51%Serve points won62%64%Return points won36%38%Games held13 of 1514 of 16Break points saved4 of 65 of 7Aces817Double faults54 | |||||||
| 2026-10-15 | Olbia | Hard | M. Mrva | 1.81 | 53% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 MaestrelliMrvaPoints won44%56%Serve points won53%65%Return points won35%47%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved7 of 110 of 2Aces54Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Olbia | Hard | M. Poljicak | 1.64 | 59% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-3 MaestrelliPoljicakPoints won62%38%Serve points won78%54%Return points won46%22%Games held8 of 85 of 7Break points saved1 of 12 of 4Aces54Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-06 | Villena | Clay | O. Tarvet | 3.61 | 73% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 4-6 MaestrelliTarvetPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%69%Return points won31%37%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved6 of 92 of 4Aces107Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-09-21 | St. Tropez | Hard | A. Guerrieri | 2.29 | 58% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 7-6 3-6 MaestrelliGuerrieriPoints won49%51%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held11 of 1415 of 16Break points saved3 of 66 of 7Aces80Double faults08 | |||||||
| 2026-09-18 | Rennes | Hard (Indoor) | S. Gueymard Wayenburg | 2.42 | 61% | LOST | |
Games in each set0-6 3-6 MaestrelliWayenburgPoints won33%67%Serve points won50%89%Return points won11%50%Games held3 of 78 of 8Break points saved1 of 50 of 0Aces28Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-09-17 | Rennes | Hard (Indoor) | Y. Ghazouani Durand | 1.37 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-3 MaestrelliDurandPoints won52%48%Serve points won56%55%Return points won45%44%Games held11 of 1610 of 15Break points saved10 of 152 of 7Aces161Double faults412 | |||||||
| 2026-09-14 | Rennes | Hard (Indoor) | A. Nagel | 1.29 | 72% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 MaestrelliNagelPoints won51%49%Serve points won61%62%Return points won38%39%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved9 of 114 of 7Aces123Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-09-11 | Istanbul | Clay | M. Kasnikowski | 2.09 | 54% | LOST | |
Games in each set0-6 6-2 1-6 MaestrelliKasnikowskiPoints won39%61%Serve points won48%69%Return points won31%52%Games held5 of 109 of 11Break points saved4 of 90 of 2Aces25Double faults10 | |||||||
G. Diallo — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Brest | Hard | N. Basavareddy | 2.32 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 7-5 DialloBasavareddyPoints won56%44%Serve points won75%60%Return points won40%25%Games held10 of 117 of 10Break points saved1 of 23 of 6Aces124Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-18 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | R. Sakamoto | 1.97 | 51% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 DialloSakamotoPoints won52%48%Serve points won72%65%Return points won35%28%Games held12 of 1412 of 14Break points saved7 of 95 of 7Aces1813Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-10-17 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | H. Mayot | 2.01 | 52% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-2 DialloMayotPoints won57%43%Serve points won84%62%Return points won38%16%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved1 of 24 of 7Aces103Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | L. Darderi | RET | 1.65 | 59% | LOST |
Games in each set4-6 3-2 DialloDarderiPoints won48%52%Serve points won69%76%Return points won24%31%Games held7 of 87 of 7Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces52Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | K. Jacquet | 1.85 | 52% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-2 DialloJacquetPoints won55%45%Serve points won71%63%Return points won37%29%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved0 of 02 of 5Aces52Double faults24 | |||||||
| 2026-07-28 | Los Cabos | Hard | T. Boyer | 1.56 | 62% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 2-6 DialloBoyerPoints won44%56%Serve points won58%74%Return points won26%42%Games held6 of 109 of 10Break points saved3 of 70 of 1Aces113Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-07-02 | Wimbledon | Grass | L. Sonego | 1.87 | 52% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-7 7-6 2-6 DialloSonegoPoints won48%52%Serve points won67%74%Return points won26%33%Games held23 of 2724 of 27Break points saved5 of 92 of 5Aces1114Double faults63 | |||||||
| 2026-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | B. Bonzi | RET | 1.94 | 50% | WON |
Games in each set1-6 4-6 7-6 6-3 3-1 DialloBonziPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%70%Return points won30%37%Games held16 of 2018 of 22Break points saved10 of 145 of 9Aces119Double faults40 | |||||||
| 2026-06-25 | Eastbourne | Grass | J. Draper | 3.07 | 68% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 4-6 DialloDraperPoints won39%61%Serve points won51%77%Return points won23%49%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved5 of 90 of 1Aces102Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-06-24 | Eastbourne | Grass | T. M. Etcheverry | 1.68 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-2 DialloEtcheverryPoints won56%44%Serve points won79%63%Return points won37%21%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved1 of 19 of 12Aces1410Double faults11 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Francesco Maestrelli or Gabriel Diallo?
Gabriel Diallo is favourite at 1.31, which is a 74% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Francesco Maestrelli vs Gabriel Diallo?
Francesco Maestrelli is 3.66 and Gabriel Diallo is 1.31, the prices we recorded for the Brest match.
What is the head-to-head between Francesco Maestrelli and Gabriel Diallo?
They have met 1 time and Francesco Maestrelli leads 1-0.
Who will win Francesco Maestrelli vs Gabriel Diallo?
Our model makes it Gabriel Diallo to win at 1.31 (Lean confidence).