Lorenzo Giustino v Michael Vrbensky
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTM. Vrbensky is 4-6 over the last ten and 6-12 on clay this season. L. Giustino is 5-5 over the last ten and 20-18 on clay this season. L. Giustino retired from a match in the last month. The head to head is L. Giustino 2-0.
The pick is M. Vrbensky to win. We make it a 34% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.96 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| L. Giustino | M. Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| 216 | Ranking | 606 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| WLWLW | Last 5 | WWWLL |
| -0.8 | V the odds | +0.4 |
| 30-28 | Season | 8-16 |
| 20-18 | Clay 2026 | 6-12 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 2d | Days rest | 1d |
| 1 | Wins here | 3 |
| retired | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 2-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Maia | L. GiustinovM. Vrbensky | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-01-09 | Oeiras 2 Challenger Men | L. GiustinovM. Vrbensky | 2 - 1 |
| 2024-01-01 | Oeiras Challenger Men | L. GiustinovM. Vrbensky | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
L. Giustino — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Maia | Clay (Indoor) | M. Vrbensky | 2 - 0 | 1.38 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Maia | Clay (Indoor) | A. Pellegrino | 1 - 2 | 2.89 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-10-08 | Palermo (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | C. Sanchez Jover | 2 - 1 | 1.82 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-10-06 | Palermo (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | C. Langmo | 0 - 2 | 1.29 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Bari (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | M. Donald | 1 - 1 RET | 1.84 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Bari (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | J. Sperle | 2 - 1 | 1.39 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | M25 Sabadell 2 | Clay | G. Campana Lee | 0 - 2 | 1.62 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-24 | M25 Sabadell 2 | Clay | M. Ponce de Leon Gomila | 2 - 0 | 1.19 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | M25 Sabadell 2 | Clay | E. Carrascosa Diaz | 2 - 0 | 1.09 | 87% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | G. Dimitrov | 0 - 2 | 7.43 | 87% | LOST |
M. Vrbensky — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Maia | Clay (Indoor) | L. Giustino | 2 - 0 | 3.24 | 70% | LOST |
| 2026-10-13 | Maia | Clay (Indoor) | R. Brancaccio | 2 - 0 | 3.11 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Maia | Clay (Indoor) | P. Schoen | 0 - 2 | 4.77 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-10-11 | Maia | Clay (Indoor) | O. Wallin | 0 - 0 RET | 3.69 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-14 | Szczecin | Clay | K. Wehnelt | 0 - 2 | 2.81 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-16 | Prague | Clay | O. Krutykh | 1 - 2 | 2.73 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-07-28 | San Marino | Clay | N. Basilashvili | 1 - 2 | 6.95 | 86% | LOST |
| 2026-07-27 | San Marino | Clay | M. Janvier | 2 - 1 | 2.17 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-07-20 | Tampere | Clay | P. Niklas-Salminen | 2 - 1 | 1.22 | 78% | LOST |
| 2026-06-28 | Brasov | Clay | M. Janvier | 1 - 2 | 1.99 | 53% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Lorenzo Giustino or Michael Vrbensky?
Lorenzo Giustino is favourite at 1.38, which is a 70% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Lorenzo Giustino vs Michael Vrbensky?
Lorenzo Giustino is 1.38 and Michael Vrbensky is 3.24, the prices we recorded for the Maia match.
What is the head-to-head between Lorenzo Giustino and Michael Vrbensky?
They have met 3 times and Lorenzo Giustino leads 3-0.
Who will win Lorenzo Giustino vs Michael Vrbensky?
Our model makes it Michael Vrbensky to win at 3.21 (Lean confidence).