Keegan Smith v Hiroki Moriya
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTK. Smith is 4-6 over the last ten and 31-19 on hard this season. H. Moriya is 5-5 over the last ten and 30-27 on hard this season.
The pick is K. Smith to win 2-0. We make it a 42% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.36 or bigger. At 1.90 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| K. Smith | H. Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Ranking | 501 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 5-5 |
| LWWLW | Last 5 | LWLLW |
| -0.2 | V the odds | -0.4 |
| 39-26 | Season | 31-28 |
| 31-19 | Hard 2026 | 30-27 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 3d | Days rest | 6d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification | K. SmithvH. Moriya | 1 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
K. Smith — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification | Hard | H. Moriya | 1 - 2 | 1.37 | 70% | LOST |
| 2026-10-02 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | M. Krueger | 2 - 0 | 1.79 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-10-01 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | 1.75 | 53% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | K. Bigun | 1 - 2 | 1.38 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification | Hard | D. Dietrich | 0 - 2 | 2.14 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-09-21 | San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification | Hard | E. Winter | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-14 | Tiburon | Hard | M. Krueger | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open | Hard | A. Galarneau | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-17 | Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification | Hard | S. Kwon | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-07-25 | Segovia | Hard | L. Pavlovic | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
H. Moriya — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification | Hard | K. Smith | 1 - 2 | 3.17 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Jingshan | Hard | O. Jasika | 2 - 0 | 2.29 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Jingshan | Hard | J. Huang | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-15 | Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | B. Ellis | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-11 | Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | Y. Shimizu | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-09 | Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | M. Jones | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-07 | Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification | Hard | D. Palan | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | Zhangjiagang | Hard | K. Samrej | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | Zhangjiagang | Hard | P. Dev S D | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | Zhangjiagang | Hard | G. Lomakin | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Keegan Smith or Hiroki Moriya?
Keegan Smith is favourite at 1.37, which is a 70% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Keegan Smith vs Hiroki Moriya?
Keegan Smith is 1.37 and Hiroki Moriya is 3.17, the prices we recorded for the Wuning 3 (China) match.
What is the head-to-head between Keegan Smith and Hiroki Moriya?
They have met 1 time and Hiroki Moriya leads 1-0.
Who will win Keegan Smith vs Hiroki Moriya?
Our model makes it Keegan Smith to win 2-0 at 1.90 (Lean confidence).