ChallengerHardGuangzhou2026-10-22 04:00

Keegan Smith v Fajing Sun

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

K. Smith to win 2-02.10

Price too short today - wait for 2.28 or bigger · our chance 44% · market 67/33, us 74/26

K. Smith is 6-4 over the last ten and 34-21 on hard this season. F. Sun is 5-5 over the last ten and 31-26 on hard this season. F. Sun took a medical timeout on 2026-10-09. The head to head is K. Smith 1-0.

The pick is K. Smith to win 2-0. We make it a 44% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.28 or bigger. At 2.10 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

K. Smith		F. Sun
202	Ranking	303
6-4	Last 10	5-5
WLWWL	Last 5	WLLWW
+1.1	V the odds	-1.1
42-28	Season	31-29
34-21	Hard 2026	31-26
2	Last 7 days	1
2d	Days rest	3d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	MTO
	Head to head 1-0

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

K. SmithFAV1.3667%

F. Sun2.8033%

Market says67% Smith

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

K. SmithWLWWL

F. SunWLLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

K. Smith1

F. Sun0

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2022-04-26	Morelos	K. SmithvF. Sun	6-4 6-2

This season & this event

K. Smith

F. Sun

42-28

34-21

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

31-29

31-26

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Keegan Smith

USA

Fajing Sun

China

202

USA

39–27

31–21

4–2

4–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

296

China

30–29

30–26

0–2

0–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

K. Smith — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-20	Guangzhou	Hard	M. Purcell	2.77	65%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 SmithPurcellPoints won55%45%Serve points won80%68%Return points won32%20%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved1 of 14 of 5Aces1911Double faults01
2026-10-16	Jinan	Hard	M. Landaluce	3.48	72%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 2-6 3-6 SmithLandalucePoints won45%55%Serve points won57%68%Return points won32%43%Games held9 of 1311 of 13Break points saved6 of 105 of 7Aces46Double faults34
2026-10-14	Jinan	Hard	V. Kopriva	2.72	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-3 SmithKoprivaPoints won53%47%Serve points won70%67%Return points won33%30%Games held13 of 1411 of 13Break points saved3 of 42 of 4Aces83Double faults31
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	S. Sakellaridis	2.36	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 3-6 6-3 SmithSakellaridisPoints won50%50%Serve points won74%71%Return points won29%26%Games held14 of 1514 of 15Break points saved4 of 56 of 7Aces67Double faults11
2026-10-05	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	H. Moriya	1.38	70%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 6-7 3-6 SmithMoriyaPoints won51%49%Serve points won60%59%Return points won41%40%Games held11 of 1610 of 14Break points saved3 of 88 of 12Aces151Double faults26
2026-10-02	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	M. Krueger	1.79	54%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 SmithKruegerPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%78%Return points won22%32%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 61 of 1Aces142Double faults40
2026-10-01	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	B. Nakashima	1.75	53%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 7-5 SmithNakashimaPoints won50%50%Serve points won69%66%Return points won34%31%Games held13 of 1513 of 16Break points saved7 of 911 of 14Aces177Double faults12
2026-09-29	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	K. Bigun	1.33	71%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-2 SmithBigunPoints won52%48%Serve points won66%61%Return points won39%34%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved8 of 95 of 7Aces149Double faults92
2026-09-23	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	D. Dietrich	2.29	58%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-7 SmithDietrichPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%79%Return points won21%38%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved6 of 81 of 1Aces68Double faults10
2026-09-21	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	E. Winter	1.61	59%	WON
Games in each set6-3 4-6 6-2 SmithWinterPoints won55%45%Serve points won67%54%Return points won46%33%Games held11 of 148 of 13Break points saved1 of 46 of 11Aces41Double faults21

F. Sun — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	Sun Qian		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 SunQianPoints won58%42%Serve points won78%58%Return points won42%22%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved1 of 15 of 8Aces510Double faults23
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	J. Cui		2.06	53%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 5-7 SunCuiPoints won46%54%Serve points won58%64%Return points won36%42%Games held7 of 1010 of 11Break points saved3 of 63 of 4Aces44Double faults23
2026-10-09	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	A. Kachmazov		2.27	57%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 SunKachmazovPoints won45%55%Serve points won59%67%Return points won33%41%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved7 of 98 of 8Aces016Double faults24
2026-10-07	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	K. Samrej		1.50	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 SunSamrejPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%67%Return points won33%24%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 21 of 3Aces66Double faults24
2026-10-05	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	A. Wang	RET	1.07	89%	WON
Games in each set6-3 1-0 SunWangPoints won63%37%Serve points won91%54%Return points won46%9%Games held5 of 53 of 5Break points saved0 of 04 of 6Aces37Double faults06
2026-09-29	Jingshan	Hard	B. Tomic		2.26	57%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 7-6 3-6 SunTomicPoints won47%53%Serve points won65%71%Return points won29%35%Games held12 of 1515 of 16Break points saved11 of 142 of 3Aces714Double faults20
2026-09-24	Hangzhou	Hard	R. Safiullin		4.73	79%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 0-6 SunSafiullinPoints won35%65%Serve points won45%79%Return points won21%55%Games held1 of 85 of 6Break points saved5 of 121 of 2Aces45Double faults12
2026-09-23	Hangzhou	Hard	B. Tomic		2.49	63%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 SunTomicPoints won55%45%Serve points won70%55%Return points won45%30%Games held9 of 117 of 11Break points saved2 of 48 of 12Aces17Double faults14
2026-09-22	Hangzhou	Hard	M. Dellavedova		—	—	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-1 7-6 SunDellavedovaPoints won54%46%Serve points won71%59%Return points won41%29%Games held12 of 1411 of 14Break points saved0 of 28 of 11Aces65Double faults11
2026-09-17	Guangzhou 2	Hard	A. Binda		1.27	72%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 4-6 SunBindaPoints won49%51%Serve points won58%60%Return points won40%42%Games held11 of 1611 of 16Break points saved10 of 158 of 13Aces612Double faults35

Common questions

Who is favourite, Keegan Smith or Fajing Sun?

Keegan Smith is favourite at 1.36, which is a 67% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun?

Keegan Smith is 1.36 and Fajing Sun is 2.80, the prices we recorded for the Guangzhou match.

What is the head-to-head between Keegan Smith and Fajing Sun?

They have met 1 time and Keegan Smith leads 1-0.

Who will win Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun?

Our model makes it Keegan Smith to win 2-0 at 2.10 (Lean confidence).

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