ChallengerClayCosta do Sauipe2026-11-04 20:30

Igor Marcondes v Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

I. Marcondes to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.76 or bigger · our chance 57% · market 24/76, us 27/73

I. Marcondes is 6-4 over the last ten and 21-11 on clay this season. C. Ugo Carabelli is 5-5 over the last ten and 18-10 on clay this season.

The pick is I. Marcondes to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.76 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

I. Marcondes		C. Ugo Carabelli
274	Ranking	77
6-4	Last 10	5-5
WLWLL	Last 5	WWWLW
+1.6	V the odds	+0.7
27-18	Season	25-26
21-11	Clay 2026	18-10
1	Last 7 days	2
1d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

I. Marcondes3.9624%

C. Ugo CarabelliFAV1.2776%

Market says76% Carabelli

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

I. MarcondesWLWLL

C. Ugo CarabelliWWWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

I. Marcondes

C. Ugo Carabelli

27-18

21-11

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

25-26

18-10

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Igor Marcondes

Brazil

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

274

Brazil

25–17

5–5

20–11

0–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Argentina

22–25

4–12

18–12

0–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

I. Marcondes — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-03	Costa do Sauipe	Clay	L. F. Miguel	—	—	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 MarcondesMiguelPoints won57%43%Serve points won67%53%Return points won47%33%Games held9 of 116 of 10Break points saved4 of 62 of 6Aces12Double faults13
2026-10-22	Fort Worth (Usa)	Hard	E. Arutiunian	1.69	57%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 MarcondesArutiunianPoints won46%54%Serve points won55%63%Return points won37%45%Games held8 of 129 of 12Break points saved5 of 94 of 7Aces110Double faults23
2026-10-19	Fort Worth (Usa)	Hard	S. Gorzny	2.52	62%	WON
Games in each set7-5 2-6 6-4 MarcondesGorznyPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%68%Return points won32%35%Games held13 of 1513 of 15Break points saved5 of 72 of 4Aces79Double faults02
2026-09-29	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	A. Fenty	1.75	55%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 MarcondesFentyPoints won44%56%Serve points won46%58%Return points won42%54%Games held3 of 96 of 9Break points saved4 of 104 of 7Aces13Double faults35
2026-09-27	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	N. Basavareddy	—	—	LOST
Games in each set5-7 4-6 MarcondesBasavareddyPoints won44%56%Serve points won49%62%Return points won38%51%Games held6 of 118 of 11Break points saved3 of 82 of 5Aces23Double faults13
2026-09-26	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	T. Legout	2.71	64%	WON
Games in each set6-7 7-5 7-5 MarcondesLegoutPoints won50%50%Serve points won62%64%Return points won36%38%Games held15 of 1813 of 18Break points saved8 of 112 of 7Aces82Double faults23
2026-09-25	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	F. A. Gomez	2.37	59%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-1 MarcondesGomezPoints won58%42%Serve points won74%58%Return points won42%26%Games held13 of 1410 of 13Break points saved0 of 11 of 4Aces56Double faults37
2026-09-23	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	P. Maloney	1.76	55%	WON
Games in each set3-6 7-6 6-2 MarcondesMaloneyPoints won51%49%Serve points won66%64%Return points won36%34%Games held12 of 1511 of 14Break points saved1 of 41 of 4Aces176Double faults84
2026-09-22	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	O. Baris	2.60	63%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-3 MarcondesBarisPoints won62%38%Serve points won81%53%Return points won47%19%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved0 of 03 of 7Aces52Double faults10
2026-09-14	Tiburon	Hard	N. Basavareddy	4.65	80%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 MarcondesBasavareddyPoints won40%60%Serve points won44%65%Return points won35%56%Games held3 of 87 of 8Break points saved2 of 71 of 2Aces22Double faults33

C. Ugo Carabelli — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Costa do Sauipe	Clay	N. Sanchez Izquierdo		1.54	63%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-2 CarabelliIzquierdoPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%56%Return points won44%35%Games held13 of 1510 of 15Break points saved4 of 68 of 13Aces31Double faults42
2026-10-29	Guayaquil	Clay	A. Hernandez	RET	1.07	89%	WON
Games in each set2-0 CarabelliHernandezPoints won69%31%Serve points won80%36%Return points won64%20%Games held1 of 10 of 1Break points saved0 of 00 of 1Aces00Double faults02
2026-10-26	Guayaquil	Clay	F. Coria		1.23	78%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 CarabelliCoriaPoints won58%42%Serve points won72%54%Return points won46%28%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 24 of 8Aces55Double faults16
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	F. Auger-Aliassime		9.04	89%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 5-7 CarabelliAuger-AliassimePoints won46%54%Serve points won62%74%Return points won26%38%Games held15 of 1715 of 17Break points saved12 of 145 of 7Aces714Double faults03
2026-10-08	Shanghai	Hard	I. Simakin		2.87	66%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-2 7-5 CarabelliSimakinPoints won51%49%Serve points won58%56%Return points won44%42%Games held10 of 149 of 14Break points saved7 of 117 of 12Aces65Double faults37
2026-09-28	Tokyo	Hard	R. Hijikata		—	—	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 CarabelliHijikataPoints won39%61%Serve points won53%76%Return points won24%47%Games held5 of 98 of 8Break points saved4 of 80 of 0Aces65Double faults13
2026-09-24	Chengdu	Hard	F. Cina		—	—	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 CarabelliCinaPoints won40%60%Serve points won58%80%Return points won20%42%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved4 of 70 of 0Aces23Double faults30
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	J-L. Struff		2.81	65%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 3-6 CarabelliStruffPoints won43%57%Serve points won57%73%Return points won27%43%Games held9 of 1413 of 14Break points saved2 of 72 of 3Aces715Double faults133
2026-08-21	Cancun 2	Hard	M. Echargui	RET	1.37	71%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 0-5 CarabelliEcharguiPoints won38%62%Serve points won34%59%Return points won41%66%Games held0 of 65 of 7Break points saved3 of 92 of 4Aces03Double faults32
2026-08-20	Cancun 2	Hard	N. Mejia		1.88	52%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-4 CarabelliMejiaPoints won54%46%Serve points won79%65%Return points won35%21%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 04 of 6Aces24Double faults04

Common questions

Who is favourite, Igor Marcondes or Camilo Ugo Carabelli?

Camilo Ugo Carabelli is favourite at 1.27, which is a 76% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Igor Marcondes vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?

Igor Marcondes is 3.96 and Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 1.27, the prices we recorded for the Costa do Sauipe match.

Who will win Igor Marcondes vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?

Our model makes it Igor Marcondes to win a set (Lean confidence).

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