Hugo Gaston v Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONH. Gaston is 6-4 over the last ten and 16-14 on hard this season. P. Herbert is 3-7 over the last ten and 11-10 on hard this season. H. Gaston took a medical timeout on 2026-10-05. The head to head is H. Gaston 1-1.
The pick is H. Gaston to win. We make it a 69% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.45 or bigger. At 1.40 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| H. Gaston | P. Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | Ranking | 286 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 3-7 |
| WLLWW | Last 5 | WLLLW |
| +1.0 | V the odds | -1.6 |
| 32-27 | Season | 18-19 |
| 16-14 | Hard 2026 | 11-10 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 1d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| MTODefending final | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Roanne | H. GastonvP. Herbert | 2 - 1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Saint Brieuc | P. HerbertvH. Gaston | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-02-05 | ATP Marseille | H. GastonvP. Herbert | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
H. Gaston — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Roanne | Hard (Indoor) | P. Herbert | 2 - 1 | 1.40 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Roanne | Hard (Indoor) | D. Jade | 2 - 0 | 1.18 | 82% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | 1.68 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-09-27 | Hangzhou | Hard | A. Rublev | 1 - 2 | 4.38 | 78% | LOST |
| 2026-09-26 | Hangzhou | Hard | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | 2.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Hangzhou | Hard | S. Shimabukuro | 0 - 2 | 1.71 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | D. Medvedev | 3 - 0 | 6.68 | 86% | LOST |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | C. Smith | 2 - 1 | 1.72 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | 1.67 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | G. I. Justo | 2 - 0 | 1.13 | 85% | WON |
P. Herbert — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Roanne | Hard (Indoor) | H. Gaston | 2 - 1 | 3.11 | 69% | LOST |
| 2026-10-13 | Roanne | Hard (Indoor) | N. Gombos | 2 - 0 | 1.72 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Mouilleron-Le-Captif | Hard (Indoor) | S. Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | 2.42 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | Winston-Salem | Hard | L. Sonego | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Winston-Salem | Hard | Q. Vandecasteele | 1 - 2 | 1.65 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-22 | Winston-Salem | Hard | K. Miyoshi | 2 - 1 | 2.12 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-07-18 | Kitzbuhel | clay | S. Kopp | 2 - 0 | 2.32 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-07-11 | Gstaad | Clay | T. Monteiro | 2 - 1 | 2.22 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-06-22 | Wimbledon | Grass | P. Jubb | 0 - 2 | 1.76 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-06-08 | Stuttgart | Clay | M. Landaluce | 1 - 2 | 2.11 | 54% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Hugo Gaston or Pierre-Hugues Herbert?
Hugo Gaston is favourite at 1.40, which is a 69% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Hugo Gaston vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert?
Hugo Gaston is 1.40 and Pierre-Hugues Herbert is 3.11, the prices we recorded for the Roanne match.
What is the head-to-head between Hugo Gaston and Pierre-Hugues Herbert?
They have met 3 times and Hugo Gaston leads 2-1.
Who will win Hugo Gaston vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert?
Our model makes it Hugo Gaston to win at 1.40 (Lean confidence).