THE TENNIS TRADER
TUESDAY 13 OCTOBERMATCHES 224EVENTS 35LIVE 2ALERTS 135
ChallengerHardJinan2026-10-12 04:00

Dane Sweeny v Bernard Tomic

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

LeanVOID
B. Tomic to win1.93
Worth backing at 1.85 or bigger · our chance 54% · market 50/50, us 46/54

B. Tomic is 7-3 over the last ten and 28-19 on hard this season. D. Sweeny is 5-5 over the last ten and 23-22 on hard this season. B. Tomic withdrew from a match in the last month. The head to head is D. Sweeny 1-1.

The pick is B. Tomic to win. We make it a 54% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.85 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

D. SweenyB. Tomic
112Ranking185
5-5Last 107-3
LWLWWLast 5LWWWW
+0.7V the odds+1.0
29-26Season33-25
23-22Hard 202628-19
2Last 7 days3
6dDays rest4d
0Wins here0
ClearFitnesswithdrew
Head to head
1-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

D. Sweeny1.9450%
B. TomicFAV1.9350%
Market says50% Tomic

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

D. Sweeny1
B. Tomic1
Head to head2 meetings
DateEventMatchScore
2025-11-14Brisbane 3B. TomicvD. Sweeny1 - 2
2023-06-15Palmas Del MarD. SweenyvB. Tomic0 - 2

This season & this event

D. Sweeny
B. Tomic
30-26
24-22
Did not play
Did not play
2026 record
2026 on hard
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
33-26
28-20
Lost QF to S. Mochizuki
Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Dane Sweeny
Australia
Bernard Tomic
Australia
112
25
Australia
28–25
1
22–21
0–1
6–3
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
185
33
Australia
32–24
1
27–18
2–2
3–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

D. Sweeny — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-12JinanHardB. Tomic0 - 0 RET1.9450%WON
2026-10-06ShanghaiHardK. Coppejans0 - 21.6757%LOST
2026-10-05ShanghaiHardT. Schoolkate2 - 12.2958%WON
2026-10-02JingshanHardA. Bolt2 - 01.7057%LOST
2026-10-01JingshanHardP. Bar Biryukov0 - 21.3767%WON
2026-09-30JingshanHardO. Jasika1 - 21.4666%WON
2026-09-24HangzhouHardT. Daniel0 - 22.3960%LOST
2026-09-05US OpenHardL. Darderi3 - 04.0076%LOST
2026-09-02US OpenHardL. Musetti3 - 113.6293%WON
2026-09-01US OpenHardC. Moutet2 - 0 RET3.2970%WON

B. Tomic — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-12JinanHardD. Sweeny0 - 0 RET1.9350%LOST
2026-10-08ShanghaiHardM. Arnaldi0 - 22.9267%LOST
2026-10-06ShanghaiHardT. Skatov2 - 01.7854%WON
2026-10-05ShanghaiHardT. Atmane1 - 1 RET3.3171%WON
2026-10-01JingshanHardY. Shimizu1 - 21.6061%WON
2026-09-29JingshanHardF. Sun2 - 11.6857%WON
2026-09-23HangzhouHardF. Sun0 - 21.4663%LOST
2026-09-22HangzhouHardR. Te2 - 1——WON
2026-09-19Guangzhou 2HardP. Kotov2 - 02.1655%LOST
2026-09-18Guangzhou 2HardA. Binda2 - 01.1480%WON

Common questions

Who is favourite, Dane Sweeny or Bernard Tomic?

Bernard Tomic is favourite at 1.93, which is a 50% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Dane Sweeny vs Bernard Tomic?

Dane Sweeny is 1.94 and Bernard Tomic is 1.93, the prices we recorded for the Jinan match.

What is the head-to-head between Dane Sweeny and Bernard Tomic?

They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.

Who will win Dane Sweeny vs Bernard Tomic?

Our model makes it Bernard Tomic to win at 1.93 (Lean confidence).

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